Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
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Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
Anticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisn Gowdy,c Karen Stainbrook/ Audra Nowosielski,' Caroline Hermans,0 and John Polimeni'♦This research was made possible by a grant from the Hudson River Foundation entitled “Modeling and Measuring (he Process and Consequences of Land Use Change: Case Studies in the Hudson River Watershed".•Rubenstein Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario AnalysisSchool of Environment and Natural Resources. University of Vermont, Burlington. VT 05405.b State University of New York, College of Environmental ScieAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
nce and Forestry. Syracuse. NY 13210.' Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180.8. ANTICIPATING CHANGE IN THE HUDSON Anticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis world have succumbed to what Alfred Kahn1 referred to as “the tyranny of small decisions.” The tyranny describes the long-run, often unanticipated, consequences of a system of decision making based on marginal, near-term evaluation. Land use decisions made one property, one home, and one business a Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysist a time in the name of economic growth have accumulated without regard to social and environmental values. The tyranny results when the accumulationAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
of these singular decisions creates a scale of change, or a conversion from one system dynamic to another, which would be disagreeable to rhe originalAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisthese same individuals may have decided on a different path.Incremental decisions made by weighing marginal benefits against marginal costs by an individual isolated in a point in time are the hallmark of traditional economics. But maximizing the well-being of both society and the individual require Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysiss an exercise in identifying and pursuing a collective will, quite different than assuming community held goals will result from just individual pursuAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
its of well-being.At the watershed scale, the tyranny of small decisions has emerged in the form of urban sprawl - a dispersed, automobile dependent, Anticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysise United States has incrementally dissolved. By structuring the land-use decision problem as a45140series 0Í individual choices, the tyranny has resulted in losses OÍ watershed functions such as water supply, purification, and habitat provision - so-called natural capital depreciation.Associated soc Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisial capital depreciation includes del line in school quality, loss OÍ social networks, and degradation of community services, These arc possible outcoAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
mes that a democracy may not have c hosen il given the c hance, yet individuals often can’t appreciate in lheir own land-use decisions.To emerge from Anticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisequires a simplification of multiple scales and time dimensions into one set of assumptions. It implies a defense against alternative predictions, rather than an exploration of possible futures. Quantitative assessment and model building is often limited to one system, with others treated as exogene Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisous corollaries.In contrast, anticipation implies a process of envisioning scenarios of the future and embracing the complexity that is inherent amongAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
and within lite spheres of social, economic, and ecological change. As a process-oriented approach to decision-making, anticipation focuses on the drAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysismakers can vary the assumptions within degrees of current knowledge, foresee the accumulation of small decisions, and decide upon gr oup strategics that decrease the likelihood of undesirable consequences.The following case study describes a project in Dutchess County, New York, that has developed i Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisn this spirit. Section 8.2 introduces Dutchcss County, and its own version of tire "tyranny of small decisions.” Sec lion 8.3 describes an integratedAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
approach to model development in Dutchcss County, including economic, land-use, and ecological sub-models that provide both the detail w ithin and conAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisllustrate the connectivity and chain of causality between economic, land-use, and ecological sub-models. Section 8.5 then introduces a multi-criteria decision framework to aid watershed planning efforts in the context of multiple decision criteria, social values, and stakeholder positions. Section 8 Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis.6 concludes with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, and places this case in the context of other book chapters.8.2 WATERSAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
HED COMMUNITIES AND THE DUTCHESS COUNTY DEVELOPMENT GRADIENTWatershed communities include the physical, ecological, and human components of a topograpAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis 34,000 square kilometers of land (mostly in New York, but also reaching into Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont) on its journey from the southern slopes of the High Peaks of the Adirondack mountains to the Atlantic Ocean.2 Dutchess County (2.077 km2) is located in the lower Hudson Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysiswatershed, midway between the state capital of Albany and New York City. Figure 1 highlights the county’s two principal Hudson tributary watersheds ofAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
Wappingers (546.5 km2)and Fishkill (521 km2) Creeks, which together drain over half of the county landscape. The full county includes approximately 9Anticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisland-use patterns, and the general health of the Wappingers and Fishkill systems into the design of a decision aide to support county and state land-use planners, ongoing intermunicipal efforts to improve watershed health, and local citizen’s groups working to improve quality of life of county resid Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisents.45142FIGURE 8-1Dutchess County. New York, and its main Hudson tributary watershedsThe Dutchess economy through the mid-twentieth century' was priAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
ncipally agrarian, specifically mixed row-crop, dairy; and fruit agriculture. While today’s county economy is characterized by 203 distinct sectors, wAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisional Business Machine Corporation (IBM). In 2000, IBM was the second largest employer (>11,000) in the county, preceded only by local government institutions (13,800), and45143https://khothuvien.cori!followed by state government (7,600)? Other major economic themes cutting across the county - ident Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisified at an early stakeholder meeting of this project - include the influence of seasonal home ownership and commuting patterns (particularly in relatAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
ion to New York City wealth and employment), the decline of traditional agricultural in favor of agro-tourism activities, and the aging population andAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysispingers Creek watershed mirrors this gradient, beginning in mostly forested headwaters, continuing through a predominantly agricultural landscape, flowing through mixed suburban use, and discharging into the Hudson in the urban areas of Wappingers Falls and Poughkeepsie. The Fishkill Creek follows a Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis similar northeast-southwest development gradient with generally higher population densities, and enters the Hudson through the city of Beacon. The geAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
ology of both watersheds is primarily a mix of limestones, dolostones, and shales, and annual precipitation is approximately 1040 mm.4These rural to sAnticipating change in the Hudson River Watershed: An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis*Jon D. Erickson.' Karin Limburg/ John Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis In particular, a pattern of urban sprawl that stretches up each watershed creates a gradient of increasing impervious surfaces and corresponding impacts on aquatic health. Land use is changing most rapidly in the south-central portion of the county as a consequence of high-tech industrial growth an Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysisd a general push of suburban expansion radiating out from the New York City greater metropolitan area. Residential development, in particular, is rapiAnticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed An Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis
dly converting forest and field to roads and housing. According to county planners, about 75% of the houses in Dutchess are located in the southern haGọi ngay
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