Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
Dan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”Korea should still be deterred. In practice, however, few wars are the result of rational calculations, managed crises, and highly intellectual escalation ladders.” (Cordesman. 2002)“War seems to many to be an irrational act of passion....Yet for all the emotion of the battlefield, the premeditation Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” of war is a rational process consisting of careful and deliberate calculations.” (Bueno de Mesquita. 1981. 19)Who is right?ABSTRACTIs war a rational,Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
well-calculated pursuit of states, or is war more often caused by miscalculation and misperception? Assumptions about the extent of rationality underDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”s of war into two camps. For example, many realists and expected utility theorists fall into the rationalist camp, while political psychologists and students of bureaucratic politics fall into the miscalculation and misperception camp. Despite this schism, few studies empirically test the overall ex Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”tent of rationality in decisions for war. Using our “Is War Rational?” database, we find that prior to 1900. war initiators won over seventy percent oIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
f the time. Since 1945. only about one-third of initiators win. Assuming that states initiate wars planning to win, the utility of war has declined drDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”roaches to the causes of war is decreasing. Causes of miscalculation and misperception desene more study.11 Contact information: Dan Lindley. Assistant Professor. Department of Political Science. 448Decio Hall. University of Notre Dame. Notre Dame. IN 46556. Phone: 574-631-3226: Fax: 574-631-8209; E Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”mail: dlindl.ey^a!.nd,ed.u; Webpage: http.7Avww.nd.edu/~dlindley/: Ryan Schildkraut, student. University of Minnesota Law School. Walter F. Mondale HaIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
ll. 229 19th Avenue South. Minneapolis. MN 55455, 612-702-4907, schill31ffiumn.edu. Contact Dan Lindley for correspondence regarding this article. ComDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”in the text, but for the purpose of journal review, the technical appendix is included. The appendix is not necessary for understanding the at tide. Rev. 2.0, 2/9/2005, word count: 13,681.Our thanks to David Campbell, Emma Cohen de Lara, Katherine Jeter, Lauren Kimaid, Garrick Merlo. Adam Shanko, Ma Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”riana Sousa. James Thompson. Stephen Van Evera. Paul Vasquez. Jennifer Wletner as well as to numerous panel discussants and other commenters at conferIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
ences. The University of Notre Dame Laboratory for Social Research and the Office of Faculty Research also supported this project.0IntroductionIs war Dan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”rtant question because assumptions about the extent of rationality in decisions for war underlie policy debates on a range of subjects from deterrence and missile defense to peacekeeping. Arguments about rationality also underlie academic debates about the general causes of war and the methodologies Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” to study them, as well as historical debates about rhe causes of specific wars.If one assumes that states start wars intending to win them, then lossIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
es by war initiators will tend to indicate that the decision for war was dominated by miscalculation and misperception. This assumption means that theDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”tarized Interstate Dispute (MID), and National Material Capabilities (NMC) databases, and we find that initiators won 55% of the seventy-nine large interstate wars between 1815 and 1991. The utility of war has declined markedly over time. In the forty-seven wars since 1900, the success rate declined Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” to 43%. Since 1945, initiators won 33% of twenty-three wars. Despite declining win rates, states initiate wars at an increasing to steady (since 1920Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
) rate over time. States are not learning that war increasingly does not pay.Declining win rates and steady initiation rates provide the main basis foDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” power is often not a good predictor of outcomes.These findings have impacts across a range of policy and academic debates. If miscalculation and misperception is increasing, then deterrence is getting harder. The utility of1rationalist approaches to the causes of war is decreasing. Causes of miscal Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”culation and misperception deserve more study.We begin by reviewing some of the policy and scholarly debates that hinge on assumptions about rationaliIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
ty in decisions for war. Second, we situate ourselves in the large-.v literature on the causes of war. noting that the study of miscalculation and misDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”stify the assumption that initiators intend Io win their wars, define our terms, examine the major problems posed by the available data, and explain the decisions titles we adopted to respond to these problems. In addition, there is a technical appendix available online at: «author website», where r Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”eaders will also find the master data and analysis spreadsheets. Fourth, we present our findings, using descriptive statistics to demonstrate the declIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
ining win rate for war initiators, to see if power or allies help determine war outcomes, and to look at trends in the rate of war initiation. FinallyDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”onality underlie a number of policy and scholarly debates. For example, those who argue that deterrence works well assume that decisions to initiate war are rational and deliberate. ĨI slates are generally rational, then policy makers can effectively use aims, alliances, and deployments to increase Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”the costs of war and bolster deterrence. On the other hand, arguments for greater transparency, for arms control, and against militarism and hypernatiIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
onalism often assume that war is rooted in miscalculation and misperception. In this view, deterrence is harder bec ause opacity, arms races and spiraDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”tes are irrational and not deterrable. Opponents of missile defense counter that ‘states of concern’ are deterrable. Light peacekeeping assumes that combatants do not really want to fight, and that peace can be kept once miscalculations and misperceptions are sorted out. Yet if the combatants have g Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”ood reasons for fighting, peacekeeping must be heavy or avoided altogether (Betts 1994). Successful prescriptions for reducing the likelihood of war dIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
epend on accurate diagnoses of the causes of war. These diagnoses in turn often rely on assumptions about the prevalence of rationality and the qualitDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”terature. Most offensive and neo-realists, rational choice analysts, and materialists argue that war tends to be rational and deliberate. In contrast, some defensive realists, students of bureaucratic and organizational politics, and political psychologists argue that miscalculation and misperceptio Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”n tend to cause war. Using a broad brush. Table 1 shows how most general theories about the causes of war can be sorted into two camps according the aIs War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”
ssumptions they hold about the rationality of war.1The first camp contains rationalists who contend that states choose war for gains in security, wealDan Lindley and Ryan Schildkraut1“Is War Rational?The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”"By every rational standard. North K Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”ols Emphasizing Rational Causes of WarTheories and Schools Emphasizing Miscalculation and MisperceptionOffensive RealismOrganizational and Bureaucratic PoliticsNeo-realismMilitarismLateral Pressure TheoryHypernationalismExpected utility Theory“Cult of the Offensive"Rational Choice ExplanationsPsycho Is War Rational The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War”logy and Decision-making ModelsPower Transitions. Preventive, and Pre-emptive WarsDomestic Politics (including Scapegoating and Logrolling)Gọi ngay
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