The drivers of physical demand for gold
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The drivers of physical demand for gold
Brian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldAL A. O'CONNORThe York Management School, University of York, England, UK -fergal.oconnor(5)york.ac.ukSAMUEL A. VIGNEQueen’s Management School, Queen's University Belfast, Northern Ireland - s.vigne@qub.ac.ukVO XUAN VINHUniversity of Economics HCMC - vinhvx@uehedu,vnAbstractWhich factors drive the p The drivers of physical demand for goldrice of gold? Many papers have addressed this question from different angles; the answer depends on the researchers' view and definition of the precioThe drivers of physical demand for gold
us metal: investment asset, industrial asset, or a mixture of both? While most researchers focus on the influence of macroeconomic variables on the prBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldultitude of countries. Different panel and non-panel models are used and tested for goodness of fit in order to derive empirical insights into the drivers of physical demand.Results for total gold demand indicate a positive relationship with shortterm yields and economic uncertainty, while the exact The drivers of physical demand for gold opposite is observed for industrial gold demand, where a positive relationship with economic activity is observed. Furthermore, results indicate a riThe drivers of physical demand for gold
sing luxury demand linked to increases in national wealth, and towards a positive relationship between investment demand for gold and both inflation aBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldo physical gold rather than through buying jewellery.Keywords: gold; physical demand.1IntroductionFinancial research about precious metals draws conclusions about empirical behaviour and aspects of gold by considering the official price originating on stock markets. In this case, the demand is aggre The drivers of physical demand for goldgated; no difference is made between institutional and non- institutional investors, between the private and the public sector, between demand originaThe drivers of physical demand for gold
ting from consumers and producers.However, the alleged safety character of gold is the very definition of the asset's nature; one would think that thiBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldtfolio is beneficial for multiple reasons (see Baur and Lucey (2010) and Batten et al. (2014)), the real safety of gold lies in holding it physically as a last resort asset in extreme situations (Starr and Tran (2008)). Financial research on gold can be divided into different categories, each consid The drivers of physical demand for goldering different aspects of the precious metals (O'Connor et al. (2015)). A very predominant field is on the relationship between gold and inflation; hThe drivers of physical demand for gold
ere an alleged relationship is believed to exist based on gold's definition as both: an international currency and a production asset. If gold is consBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldead to investors driving down their proportion of cash and invest in gold, hence pushing the price upwards (Lucey et al. (2016)). On the other hand, if gold is considered to be a regular asset, then its price would rise alongside the rate of inflation since the definition of inflation is that the do The drivers of physical demand for goldllar price of a typical good rises (Jaffe (1989)). The reaction to inflation from investors is therefore proactive while the reaction from producers iThe drivers of physical demand for gold
s reactive -an obvious difference in the behaviour of demand should therefore be observable. A similar reasoning can be applied for the safe haven theBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldwhile it should, if anything, diminish the demand from producers who are facing an economic downturn. Again, a different impact on investor and producer demand can be expected.While modelling the demand for physical gold can be done relying on the same classical tools used when modelling the total d The drivers of physical demand for goldemand market, the task remains very complicated due to the limited availability of data and the manual allocation of thedemand. Extracting these figurThe drivers of physical demand for gold
es is a very cumbersome and labour-intensive task which4|can only be done by looking into the annual surveys of the past decades computed by the Gold Brian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldn into three different categories:•Industrial Demand: reflecting the demand for precious metals as a production input in electronics, dentistry etc.•Investment Demand: the demand for bars and coins, targeting mostly investors attracted by the safety aspects of precious metals.•Luxury Demand: gold ne The drivers of physical demand for goldeded for the production of jewellery.Important country effects might affect the physical demand for gold by influencing some of the three categories mThe drivers of physical demand for gold
ore than others. In order to try and derive empirical results instead of running country-specific models, we propose working with different panel apprBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldffects.The choice of country is made in regard to the country's relative importance on both the offer and/or the demand market of gold. The following countries are considered: Australia, Canada, China, Egypt, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Switzerland, Thail The drivers of physical demand for goldand, Turkey, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and finally, the United States of America.This paper contributes to the field bThe drivers of physical demand for gold
y being the first to look at physical demand for gold, breaking down the demand into different types. We work with a clean and thorough methodology anBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for gold Section 2 offers a brief overview of the related literature in order to defend the choice of data, Section 3 presents the methodology, while Section 4 outlines and discusses the empirical results. Finally, Section 5 concludes.2Literature Review and Data PresentationFERGAL LITERATUREThe annual Gold The drivers of physical demand for goldFields Mineral Services (GFMS) surveys published Thomson Reuters provide an overview of the amount of gold supplied and demanded across various countrThe drivers of physical demand for gold
ies over the past calendar year.Plotting the demand for gold and silver respectively (Figures 1) indicates a shift in the demand towards a rising impoBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldould be noted that Figures 1 is computed taking into account the global demand for gold. However, the regression results in this paper are computed considering only a subset of countries, which were chosen because of their relative importance on either the supply or the demand side of the gold marke The drivers of physical demand for goldt respectively. The countries are: Australia, Canada, China, Egypt, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, SwitzerlaThe drivers of physical demand for gold
nd, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and finally, the United States of America.Brian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGABrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5)tcd.ieFERGAGọi ngay
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