The drivers of physical demand for gold
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The drivers of physical demand for gold
Brian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldAL A. O'CONNORThe York Management School, University of York, England, UK -fergal.oconnor(g)york.ac.ukSAMUEL A. VIGNEQueen’s Management School, Queen's University Belfast, Northern Ireland - s.yigne^cj ulxac ukVO XUAN VINHUniversity of Economics HCMC - vinhvx(Q>ueh.edu.vnAbstractWhich factors drive The drivers of physical demand for goldthe price of gold? Many papers have addressed this question from different angles; the answer depends on the researchers’ view and definition of the pThe drivers of physical demand for gold
recious metal: investment asset, industrial asset, or a mixture of both? While most researchers focus on the influence of macroeconomic variables on tBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for golds a multitude of countries. Different panel and non-panel models are used and tested for goodness of fit in order to derive empirical insights into the drivers of physical demand.Results for total gold demand indicate a positive relationship with shortterm yields and economic uncertainty, while the The drivers of physical demand for goldexact opposite is observed for industrial gold demand, where a positive relationship with economic activity is observed. Furthermore, results indicateThe drivers of physical demand for gold
a rising luxury demand linked to increases in national wealth, and towards a positive relationship between investment demand for gold and both inflatBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldg into physical gold rather than through buying jewellery.Keywords: gold; physical demand.1IntroductionFinancial research about precious metals draws conclusions about empirical behaviour and aspects of gold by considering the official price originating on stock markets. In this case, the demand is The drivers of physical demand for goldaggregated; no difference is made between institutional and non- institutional investors, between the private and the public sector, between demand orThe drivers of physical demand for gold
iginating from consumers and producers.However, the alleged safety character of gold is the very definition of the asset's nature; one would think thaBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for golds portfolio is beneficial for multiple reasons (see Baur and Lucey (2010) and Batten et al. (2014)), the real safety of gold lies in holding it physically as a last resort asset in extreme situations (Starr and Tran (2008)). Financial research on gold can be divided into different categories, each c The drivers of physical demand for goldonsidering different aspects of the precious metals (O'Connor et al. (2015)). A very predominant field is on the relationship between gold and inflatiThe drivers of physical demand for gold
on; here an alleged relationship is believed to exist based on gold's definition as both: an international currency and a production asset. If gold isBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for golduld lead to investors driving down their proportion of cash and invest in gold, hence pushing the price upwards (Lucey et al. (2016)). On the other hand, if gold is considered to be a regular asset, then its price would rise alongside the rate of inflation since the definition of inflation is that t The drivers of physical demand for goldhe dollar price of a typical good rises (Jaffe (1989)). The reaction to inflation from investors is therefore proactive while the reaction from producThe drivers of physical demand for gold
ers is reactive -an obvious difference in the behaviour of demand should therefore be observable. A similar reasoning can be applied for the safe haveBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldmand while it should, if anything, diminish the demand from producers who are facing an economic downturn. Again, a different impact on investor and producer demand can be expected.While modelling the demand for physical gold can be done relying on the same classical tools used when modelling the to The drivers of physical demand for goldtal demand market, the task remains very complicated due to the limited availability of data and the manual allocation of thedemand. Extracting theseThe drivers of physical demand for gold
figures is a very cumbersome and labour-intensive task which540 Ican only be done by looking into the annual surveys of the past decades computed by tBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldoken down into three different categories:•Industrial Demand: reflecting the demand for precious metals as a production input in electronics, dentistry etc.•Investment Demand: the demand for bars and coins, targeting mostly investors attracted by the safety aspects of precious metals.•Luxury Demand: The drivers of physical demand for gold gold needed for the production of jewellery.Important country effects might affect the physical demand for gold by influencing some of the three cateThe drivers of physical demand for gold
gories more than others. In order to try and derive empirical results instead of running country-specific models, we propose working with different paBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldecific effects.The choice of country is made in regard to the country's relative importance on both the offer and/or the demand market of gold. The following countries are considered: Australia, Canada, China, Egypt, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Switzerlan The drivers of physical demand for goldd, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and finally, the United States of America.This paper contributes to theThe drivers of physical demand for gold
field by being the first to look at physical demand for gold, breaking down the demand into different types. We work with a clean and thorough methodBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldfollows: Section 2 offers a brief overview of the related literature in order to defend the choice of data, Section 3 presents the methodology, while Section 4 outlines and discusses the empirical results. Finally, Section 5 concludes.2Literature Review and Data PresentationFERGAL LITERATUREThe annu The drivers of physical demand for goldal Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) surveys published Thomson Reuters provide an overview of the amount of gold supplied and demanded across variouThe drivers of physical demand for gold
s countries over the past calendar year.Plotting the demand for gold and silver respectively (Figures 1) indicates a shift in the demand towards a risBrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGA The drivers of physical demand for goldld.It should be noted that Figures 1 is computed taking into account the global demand for gold. However, the regression results in this paper are computed considering only a subset of countries, which were chosen because of their relative importance on either the supply or the demand side of the go The drivers of physical demand for goldld market respectively. The countries are: Australia, Canada, China, Egypt, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, SThe drivers of physical demand for gold
witzerland, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and finally, the United States of America.Brian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGABrian M. Lucey et.The drivers of physical demand for goldBRIAN M. LUCEYTrinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland - blucey(5>tcd.ieFERGAGọi ngay
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