TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
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TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
Working Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. Sri TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09inivasanVani Archana39845INDIAN COUNCIL FOR RESEARCH ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONSContentAbstract.....................................................................iv1Introduction...............................................................12Brief Review of Literature...................... TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09...........................32.1Gravity Models of Bilateral Trade Flows................................32.2.Determinants of Export Decision of Finns...TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
...........................63Data and Specification of Econometric Models..............................103.1Gravity Model.............................Working Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. Sri TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09..........................123.2.1Description of variables..........................................133.2.2Estimation Results: Determinants of Export Decision...............173.3.Export Propensity of Firms: A Possible “Hazard” Model................203.3.1 Estimation Results (Maximum Log Likelihood Es TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09timates)..............214Conclusions...............................................................22References.......................................TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
............................24List of TablesList of AppendixAppendix 1: List of RTAs Covered.................................50Appendix II: Export of Working Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. Sri TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09lts.....................................53https://khothuvien.cori!AbstractThis paper contributes to two strands of literature on empirical models of trade flows and trade policy. The first and the older strand is that of gravity models of bilateral trade flows going back to Hans Linneman (1966) and TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09Tinbergen (1962) and its recent applications, particularly by Adams et al (2003) and De Rosa (2007) in analyzing the impact of Preferential Trade AgreTN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
ements (PTAs). Our focus is on applying the gravity model to analyze India’s trade flows (exports and imports) with its trading partners around the woWorking Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. Sri TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09 India is aggressively negotiating and concluding PTAs of which South Asian preferential trade (and later free trade) agreement is the most prominent. We find that India is not well served by its pursuit of PTAs and should instead push for multilateral trade liberalisation by contributing to conclus TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09ion of the Doha round of negotiations with an agreement beneficial to all WTO members.The second and the more recent strand is the analysis of trade fTN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
lows using data on exports of individual firms. It is well known that in all countries of the world relatively few firms participate in world trade, tWorking Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. Sri TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09icipation in world trade. This strand is rapidly growing. Ours is one of the very few attempts at modeling and estimating the decision of Indian firms on their participation using firm level data. The paper reports on our preliminary results. We have also collected primary data from a sample survey TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09of firms to explore this issue deeper. While these data are yet to be fully analyzed, nevertheless some preliminary descriptive tables summarizing theTN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09
m are included in an Appendix.Keywords: PTAs/RTAs, Non-discriminatoty trade liberalisation, Gravity model, Intrabloc trade effect. Trade diversion, TrWorking Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. Sri TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09 effect, sunk cost, Hazard model.J EL Classifications: FI3, F14, F21.IvIndia in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral TYade Flows and Firms’ Decision to Export Phase 1T.N. Srinivasan1 2 and Vani Archana TN - India in the Global and Regional Trade from 03-04-09Working Paper No. 232India in the Global and Regional Trade: Determinants of Aggregate and Bilateral Trade Flows and Firms' Decision to ExportT.N. SriGọi ngay
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