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Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

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Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAMHO CHI MINH CITYINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STI DIESVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMM

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock marketME FOR NLA IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSQUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: AN APPROACH FOR VIETNAM STOCK MARKETBYNGUYEN NAM KHANHMASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECO

NOMICSHO CHI MINH CITY, January 2016QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: AN APPROACH FOR VIETNAM STOCK MARKETNguyen Nam Khanh42384AbstractValue at Risk (VaR) i Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

s widely used in risk measurement. It is defined as the worst expected loss of a portfolio under a given time horizon at a given confidence level. The

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

aim of the thesis is to evaluate performance of 16 VaR models in forecasting one - day ahead VaR for daily return of VTỈINDEX and a group 8 banking s

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAMHO CHI MINH CITYINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STI DIESVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMM

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock marketity models including historical, normal and Student’s -1 as well as EWMA and two volatility models including GARCH, GJR - GARCH with three return dist

ributions normal. Student's - t and skewed Student's - t and associated Extreme Value Theory (EVT) models are performed at 5%. 2.5% and 1% of signific Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

ance level. Violation ration. Kupiec’s unconditional coverage test, independence test and Christoffersen conditional coverage test are used to backtes

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

ted performance of all models. Besides statistical analysis, graphical analysis is also incorporated. Backtesting indicates that there is no best mode

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAMHO CHI MINH CITYINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STI DIESVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMM

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock marketis only chosen after backtesting frequently performance of various models in order to ensure that most relevant and most accurate models are suited fo

r current financial market situation.Keywords: Value at Risk. Extreme Value Theory, financial risk management. conditional volatility model, backtesti Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

ng, stock indexContents1Introduction71.1Problem statements....................................... 71.2Research objectives.............................

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

......... 81.3Research questions....................................... 91.4Subject and scope of research............................ 91.5Structure of

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAMHO CHI MINH CITYINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STI DIESVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMM

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market data............................ 112.1.2Concept of Risk.................................. 122.1.3Classification of Risk........................... 13

2.1.4Risk measurement andCoherence................... 132.2Theoretical review ..................................... 142.2.1Value at Risk.............. Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

...................... 142.2.2GARCH............................................ 172.2.3Extreme Value Theory............................. 172.3Empirica

Luận văn thạc sĩ quantitative risk analysis, an approach for vietnam stock market

l studies review................................ 182.3.1Empirical research on modelingand measuring VaR . . 182.3.2Empirical research on Extreme Value

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAMHO CHI MINH CITYINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STI DIESVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMM

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAMHO CHI MINH CITYINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STI DIESVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMM

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