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(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

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Nội dung chi tiết: (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen OPMENT ECONOMICSDETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE: CASE OF VIETNAMESE DONG AND JAPANESE YENBYMr. TRAN VUONG TƯMASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOM

ICSHO C HI MINH CIT\. MAY 2013UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH C ITY VIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLAN (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

DS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSDETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE: CASE OF VIETNAMESE DONG AND JAPANESE YENA thesis submitted in part

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

ial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSByMr. TRAN VUONG TUAcademic Supervisor:PhD. NGUYEN HOANG B

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen October 2013. During the process of writing, the paper has gained a lot of experience in writing a thesis and in the area of foreign exchange rate an

alysis. During the three months of writing this thesis, several persons have contributed in the different ways to the quality of this thesis and the p (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

aper would like to take this opportunity to thank them.Firstly, the paper would like to thank our supervisor PhD. Nguyen Hoang Bao for all the help, g

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

uidance, and support. The paper would also like to express gratitude to all professors of the Vietnam-Netherlands Program for the Master in Developmen

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen and support.ABSTRACTExchange rate not only plays a very important role in the economic policy of the government of Vietnam in the process of integrati

on into the world economy, but also effects many exporters, importers, foreign investors, and commercial banks in the international transaction.Japane (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

se economy plays as important as having mainly economic relations with Vietnamese economy in the export-import trade, foreign direct investment (FDI)

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

capital, official development assistance (ODA), etc. However. Vietnam government applies the floating exchange rate policy between Vietnamese Dong and

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen importers of two countries, Japanese investors, the commercial bankers that having international settlement with Japanese Yen. are in need of defendin

g the exchange rate risk volatility of the exchange rate pairs.Our study enhance on analyzing and predicting the fluctuations of Vietnamese-Japanese e (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

xchange rate. The main research question identifies (1) Which Vietnamese and Japanese macroeconomics variables determine the VND/JPY exchange rate; (2

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

) What the role of the Japanese Yen plays in the economic relationship between Vietnam and Japan and (3) Which performance of the multiple regression

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen on model to define the determinants. Moreover, our study test the reliability in the prediction between multiple regression model and auto-regressive

integrated moving average model to examine the VND. JPY exchange rate data. Hence, auto-regressive integrated moving average model plays better foreca (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

sting performance.Key Words: VND JPY exchange rate, multiple regression model, auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARI.MA). Vietnamese Dong. Ja

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen

panese Yen. Vietnam. JapanTABLE OF CONTENTSTable of contents...........................................................1List of tables................

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) determinants of foreign exchange rate, case of vietnamese dong and japanese yen ..................................................41.Chapter one: Introduction...............................................5

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC SINSTITUTE OF SOC IAL STI DIESHO c HI MINH CITYTHE HAGUEVIETNAMTHE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELO

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