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(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

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Nội dung chi tiết: (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ IN SHORT AND LONG RUNTHESIS OF MASTER IN ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITY-2011MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITYPHAM

TH I TUYET TRINHTHE IMPAC T OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE IN SHORT AND LONG RUNMajor: Finance and BankingMajor code: 60.31.12THESIS OF (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

MASTER IN ECONOMICSACADEMIC SUPERVISOR: Ph.D NGUYEN VAN PHUCHO CHI MINH CITY-2011ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI would like to send special thanks to all the teache

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

rs who gave interesting lecture to me tor their devoted instruction during my studying in this master course.I am specially thankful to Ms. Ila Thi Th

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ xpress my profound sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to Mr. Nguyen Van Phuc, academic supervisor, for suggesting research problems, giving valuabl

e guidance and providing constant encouragement.I am particularly indebted to my family, especially my mother and my daughter, who have given me great (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

emotion and encouragement.ABSTRACTThis study shows the short and long-run impact of exchange rate on trade balance in Vietnam. Following a depreciati

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

on of real exchange rate, trade balance initially deteriorates. Trade balance will improve after two quarters and new equilibrium will be set after tw

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ milar estimation results, showing trade balance improvement following a depreciation. Corresponding eiTor correction modes (ECM) based on long-run coi

ntegration equations also come to consistent results, indicating immediate deterioration of trade balance after a depreciation. Impulse response funct (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

ions based on ECM and unrestricted Vector AutoRegression (VAR) exhibit J-curve pattern of trade balance when there is a permanent depreciation.Key wor

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

d: exchange rate and trade balance, cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag. J-curveiiCONTENTSAcknowledgement...................................

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE

(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ ................iiiList of tables........................................................viiList of figures...........................................

...........viiiAbbreviations..........................................................ixCHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION1.1 Background to the study and stateme (LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ

nt of problem....................11.2.Research question..................................................2

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE

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