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A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

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Nội dung chi tiết: A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsity of Texas at Austin Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering 301 E. Dean Keeton St. Stop C1761, Austin TX 78712?USA Tel: 1-

512-471-4535: Email: bhat@mail.utexas.edu andThe Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong KongAupal MondalThe University of Texas at A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

AustinDepartment of Civil. Architectural and Environmental Engineering301 E. Dean Keeton St. Stop Cl761, Austin TX 78712? USA ' Email: aupal.mondal@ut

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

exas.eduKatherine E. Asmussen The University of Texas at Austin Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering 301 E. Dean Keeton St

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsily Studies 405 Biobehavioral Health Building. State College PA 16802, USAEmail: acb6009@psu.eduABSTRACTIn this paper, we propose, for the first time,

a closed-form multiple discrete-grouped extreme value model that accommodates grouped observations on consumptions rather than continuous consumption A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

s. For example, in a time-use context, respondents tend to report their activity durations in bins of time (for example, 15-minute intervals or 30-min

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

ute intervals, depending on the duration of an activity). Or when reporting annual mileages driven for each vehicle owned by a household, it is unlike

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsuch as 0-4,999 miles, 5000-9,999 miles, 10000-14,999 miles, and so on. Similarly, when reporting expenditures on different types of commodities/servic

es, individuals may round up or down to a convenient dollar value of multiples of 10 or 100 (depending on the length of time in which expenditures are A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

sought). In some other cases, a product itself may be available only in specific package sizes (such as say, instant coffee, which is typically packa

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

ged in fixed sizes). In this paper, we use the so-called linear outside good utility MDCEV structure of Bhat (2018) to show how the model can be used

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets, and allows for unobserved budgets. We discuss an important identification issue associated with this linear outside good utility model, and proceed

to demonstrate applications of the proposed model to the case of weekend time-use choices of individuals and vehicle type/use choices of households.Ke A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

ywords: Multiple discrete-grouped choice models, MDCEV models, multiple discrete outcomes, linear outside good utility, grouped consumption, unobserve

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

d budgets, utility theory, time use, consumer theory.1. INTRODUCTIONMany consumer choice situations are characterized by the choice of multiple altern

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsciated with the choice of a continuous dimension (or quantity) of consumption. Bhat (2005) proposed die label of “multiple discrete-continuous” (MDC)

choice for such situations. Specifically, an outcome is said to be of the MDC type if it exists in multiple states that can be jointly consumed to dif A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

ferent continuous extents. Stalling with Wales and Woodland (1983). it has been typical to consider MDC models from a direct utility maximization pers

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

pective subject io a budget constraint associated with the total consumption across all alternatives. A particularly appealing closed-form model struc

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsy variants include the proportion of annual income spent on different transportation categories (such as vehicle purchase, gas costs, maintenance cost

s, air travel, etc.; see Ma et al., 2019), the holding and usage level of traditional fuel vehicles and different alternative fuel vehicle types (gaso A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

line, diesel, hybrid, electric, fuel cell, etc.; see Shin et al., 2019), and the different types of activities (such as sleeping, reading, listening t

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

o music, playing games, talking with other passengers, working, etc.) an individual may pursue as pan of multi-tasking during travel (Varghese and Jan

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetserentiable) utility structure with decreasing marginal utility (or satiation). Doing so has the effect of introducing imperfect substitution in the mi

x. allowing the choice of multiple alternatives (see Wales and Woodland. 1983. Kim ct al.. 2002, von llaefcn and Phancuf. 2003, and Bhat, 2005). Bhat A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

(2008) proposed a Box-Cox utility function form that is quite general and subsumes earlier utility specifications as special cases, and that is consis

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

tent with the notion of weak complementarity (see Maier, 1974), which implies that the consumer receives no utility from a non-essential good’s attrib

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsthe baseline preference for each alternative, the result is the MDCEV model, which has a dosed-form probability expression and collapses to the MNL in

the case that each (and every-) decision-maker chooses only one alternative.1In almost all of the MDC formulations thus far, especially in the contex A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

t of the use of the MDCEV model and its variants, satiation effects are allowed in both the outside good as well as the inside goods. This results in

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

a situation where the discrete and continuous consumption quantities become ven- closely tied to one another. Indeed, the discrete choice probability

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsget E to be specified, because the consumption quantity of the outside good is implicitly determined from the budget E and the continuous consumption

values of all the inside goods). As discussed in detail by Bhat (2018), the tightness maintained by the traditional MDC model will typically lead to a A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

situation where the continuous consumption amount is predicted well, but not the discrete choice (see also You et al., 2014 and Lu et al., 2017). Thi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

s latter result is because, given that the same baseline parameters drive both the discrete and continuous consumption predictions in the traditional

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets the Mix: model is to fit the continuous quantities of consumption well across all individuals, even if it is at the expense of poor fit for the discr

ete combination for many individuals). However, as shown by Bhat (2018), using a linear utility structure for the outside good removes the tight linka A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

ge between the continuous and discrete consumptions; in fact, using a linear utility structure for the outside good allows the explicit development of

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

the probability of discrete consumption without any need (or knowledge) for the continuous consumption quantities or the budget. Additionally, while

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsalizes" that its effort is better spent on predicting the zero continuous consumption values of the inside goods well even as its goal is to fit all i

nside good continuous consumptions W'ell (because it has more limited ability to utilize the satiation in the outside good to fit the non-zero values A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

well; it is true, how'ever, that the traditional model can provide better continuous consumption predictions than the linear outside good utility stru

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

cture used here despite its poor discrete consumption predictions).1 Of course, having a flexible model such as that developed in Bhat (2018) that imp

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved BudgetsChandra R. Bhat (corresponding author) The Universi

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgetsd systematic investigation of the performance of the traditional MDCEV model and the linear outside good utility model In terms of the continuous cons

umption value predictions Is left as a direction for future research.2specification for the outside good can provide the best fit for both the discret A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

e and continuous components. But doing so also leads to a proliferation of model parameters to be estimated (because the baseline preferences are para

A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Choice Model with Grouped Consumption Data and Unobserved Budgets

meterized as functions of exogenous variables).1.1.The Linear Outside Good Utility MDCEV ModelA go-between the traditional MDC formulation (which ties

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