Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up
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Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up
DEPOCENWorking F’aper Series No. 2011/09Is Vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upAnh Nguyen Tu*Thuy Nguyen Thu**Central Institute for Econ Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upnomic Management. CI EM, 68 Phan Dinh Phung Hanoi.** Foreign Trade University, 91 Chua Lang. HanoiThe DEPOCEN WORKING PAPER SERIES disseminates research findings and promotes scholar exchanges In all branches of economic studies, with a special emphasis on Vietnam. The views and interpretations expr Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upessed in the paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the DEPOCEN or its Management Board. The DEPOIs vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up
CEN does not guarantee the accuracy of findings, Interpretations, and data associated with the paper, and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for anyDEPOCENWorking F’aper Series No. 2011/09Is Vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upAnh Nguyen Tu*Thuy Nguyen Thu**Central Institute for Econ Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upetnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upNguyen Til AllhandNguyen Thu ThuyAbstractIn the course of catching-up, Vietnam faces risks in two sectors: in real sector and in financial sector. In this paper we focus mostly on risk in real sector: the risk of getting stuck in middle-income trap. Vi Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upetnam is still far lagged behind her neighbors and much more further to developed economies. Does the economic paradigm that Vietnam follows in the laIs vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up
st two decades allow her to catch up with those economies? We show that Vietnam's economic growth in the last two decades based essentially on cheap bDEPOCENWorking F’aper Series No. 2011/09Is Vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upAnh Nguyen Tu*Thuy Nguyen Thu**Central Institute for Econ Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upnce low value added. If Vietnam keeps on growing in present paradigm, hardly can it catch up the neighboring economies.Key words: Flying geese paradigm. VAR models. TFP. Technological improvement, catch-up. Vietnam.JEL classification: C30.014. 019.Central Institute for Economic Management. CIEM. 68 Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upPhan Dinh Phung Hanoi; email: nguyentuanh@mpi.gov. vn.’ Foreign Trade University. 91 Chua Lang. Hanoi.TABLE OF CONTENTS1INTRODUCTION..................Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up
............................................I2VIETNAM ECONOMIC PARADIGM.................................................42.1A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THEDEPOCENWorking F’aper Series No. 2011/09Is Vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upAnh Nguyen Tu*Thuy Nguyen Thu**Central Institute for Econ Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up....................................<82.2.2A closer look...................................................132.3Is THERE ANY IECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT.............................. 182.3./Imported intermediaries............................................................................ 202.3.2Labor Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up and capital income........................................202.3.3Prices..........................................................222.3.■/Total factorIs vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch up
productivity.......................................232.3.5Remarks:........................................................262.4Causality between foreDEPOCENWorking F’aper Series No. 2011/09Is Vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upAnh Nguyen Tu*Thuy Nguyen Thu**Central Institute for Econ Is vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upition............................353.2Policy recommendation...............................................36DEPOCENWorking F’aper Series No. 2011/09Is Vietnam economic paradigm sustainable for catch upAnh Nguyen Tu*Thuy Nguyen Thu**Central Institute for EconGọi ngay
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