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The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

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Nội dung chi tiết: The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approachENT ECONOMICSTHE IMPACTS OF MONETARY POLICY ONOUTPUT GROWTH AND INFLATIONIN VIETNAM: A VAR APPROACHA thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the req

uirements for the degree of MAS TER OF ARIS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSByVO PHUOC THUANAcademic Supervisor:Assoc. Prof. Dr. NGUYEN TRONG HOAI and Dr. PHA The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

M KHANH NAMHO CHI MINH CITY, JANUARY 2013ACMNO WLEDGEMENTFirst of all, I would like to convey sincere thanks to my supervisors Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

Trong I loai for his guidance, support and patience ensuring a successful completion of (he thesis. 1 wish to thank my co-supervisor Dr. Pham Khanh N

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approachs and my fellow classmates al (he Vietnam-Netherlands Programme for M.A in Development Economics lor (he devoted support and positive interaction thro

ughout the years.T also wish to show my thankfulness to Mr. Hoang Quang Hung for his devoted help and support in the process of the thesis.1 also wish The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

to show my thankfulness to the Vietnam-Netherlands Programme lor M.A in Development Economics along with all professors at there which have provided

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

me the knowledge and opportunity to access the best conditions for my study. What 1 have learned from their lectures not only help me get knowledge lo

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approachmy love to them. They have always been my biggest encouragement. I could not have finished this course without them. Thank you, mom and my wife, who a

lways encourage and try their best to give me the best condition so that 1 can complete the thesis.CERTIFICATIONI declare that the Thesis, which I her The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

eby submit for the degree of Master of Arts in Development Economics at the Vietnam — Netherlands Programme For M.A In Development Economics - Univers

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

ity of Economics Ho chi Minh City - Vietnam, is the result of my own work with the guidance OÍ the supervisors, except where otherwise staled. Other s

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approachn lor another degree or qualilicalion in this or any university.VO PHUOC THUANDale: January 21, 2013ABSTRACTUnderstanding of monetary policy and the w

ay it is transmitted to the economy through different channels and the time it needs to take effect are both important, which are “visible hand” that The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

could help the country to get over the challenges to achieve the target. This thesis examines the impact of monetary policy on real output growth and

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

inflation of the urban area, rural area and all over of Vietnam by using the vector auto-regression (VAR) focusing on the reduced-form relationships b

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach exchange rate.The result suggests that money supply have impact on real output growth and inflation in the urban area, the rural area and all over of

Vietnam but the impacts are at low percentage. The fact that the thesis cannot find out any channel having the impact on the real output growth, this The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

suggest that monetary policy may take impact on real output growth through other channels which are not mentioned in this thesis. Among the three men

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

tioned channels there is only credit channel has the impact on the inflation. An increase in domestic credit has the positive effects on inflation. Th

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approachnel has been found to be a very important channel of monetary transmission mechanism in other countries but it is not significant in Vietnam. This mea

ns that interest rate policy has not been implemented in an effective way.There is also destitute evidence of the response of real output growth and i The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

nflations to changes in exchange rate. This means that exchange rate does not seem to be an important channel of monetary policy as well.TABLE OF CONT

The impacts of monetary policy on output growth and inflation in vietnam a var approach

ENTCHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION.............................................11.1.Problem Statement...........................................1

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITYVIETNAMINSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDSVIETNAM - NETHERLANDSPROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPME

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