Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications DEFAULT FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BASED ON FINANCIAL INDICATORSGRADUATION THESISMAJOR: FINANCE & BANKINGCODE: 7340201HO CHI MINH CITY, 2021MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITYNGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT FOR SM Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BASED ON FINANCIAL INDICATORSGRADUATION THESISMAJOR: FINANCE & BANKINGCODE: 7340201SCIENCE INSTRUCTORPỈÌ.D. NGUYEN MINH NHAPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
THO CHI MINH CITY, 2021iABSTRACTThe internal credit rating system always plays an important role at commercial banks in assessing customers' credit riMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications has been building a legal framework for the credit rating to improve information transparency and support for banks to control credit risk from the beginning as well as support the stock market, the bond market to promote capital mobilization through the stock market, protect the rights and interes Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ts of investors.Researching and selecting suitable rating models will significantly contribute to the development of credit rating activities in VietnPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
am. However, the current models for predicting default probability have certain limitations and are being debated, inconsistency about these models' rMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ich financial ratios affect the ranking results is always the goal, which needs to be studied in default prediction research. Up to now, there are still not many studies published in Vietnam on selecting models to forecast the probability of default of enterprises based on financial indicators.There Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications fore, the thesis focuses on the issue of "Predicting the probability of default for Small and Medium Enterprise based on financial indicators" to provPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
ide commercial banks systematically a theoretical basis and empirical evidence related to the selection of an appropriate business bankruptcy predictiMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ctive of this study is to: (i) determine the criteria of an appropriate forecasting model; (ii) how to choose a model capable of predicting the default probability of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) at Vietnamese commercial banks based on financial indicators. The results obtained from this stud Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications y aim to provide additional quantitative scientific evidence to answer which predictive model gives the best results in predicting the probability ofPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
default of medium firms and small in Vietnamese commercial banks; (iii) The most importantiicontribution of this study is to develop a basic idea in tMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ntrol of commercial banks in Vietnam in the coming time.SMEs play a major role in most economies, particularly in developing countries. SMEs account for the majority of businesses worldwide and are important contributors to job creation and global economic development. Micro, small and medium enterp Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications rises, commonly known as small and medium enterprises, are smallsized enterprises in terms of capital, labor or turnover. Small and medium enterprisesPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
can be divided into three categories based on their size: micro enterprises, small enterprises and medium enterprises. According to the World Bank GrMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications 10 to less than 200 people and a capital of 20 billion or less; medium enterprises have from 200 to 300 employees with capital of 20 to 100 billion.Probability of default is an important component applied in many credit risk analysis and risk management activities. According to Basel II, it is a ke Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications y parameter used in calculating the level of economic capital capable of absorbing risks at credit institutions. PD is one of the most useful ratios fPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
or classifying borrowers. All banks, whether using standard or other advanced methods must provide supervisors with an internal estimate of the PD relMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ctual financial ratios and can practically reflect the business's state. PD can effectively reduce credit risk if fully considered.Through a review of domestic and foreign studies shows that financial institutions can apply many different credit rating models to predict the default probability of en Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications terprises. These predictive models can be polynomial models, logit models, probit models, artificial neural network models. Besides, these ranking modPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
els use inputs or different financial indicators to forecast the bankruptcy of a business. Financial ratios are commonly used as short-term solvency, MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ppropriate credit rating model and financial indicators affecting the probability of default in the researchers are different, as well as the application in Research to predict the possibility of default of SMEs customers in Vietnam according to the author which is a new point. Through the analysis, Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications comparison and synthesis of the above studies and related issues, the author has pointed out some research gaps, proposing the proposed research modePredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
l and expected method for the topic.To accomplish the research objectives, the author implemented through 04 stages according to the following steps: MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications rating models (the logit model, the probit model, the complementary log-log model); The last stage use the Confusion matrix and Fl - Score to evaluate each model's regression results. On that basis, select an appropriate credit rating model and has the ability to predict well the probability of def Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications ault of customers.The study was conducted based on the data, which are taken from the annual financial statements of approximately 400 companies fromPredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
2017 to 2019. These financial statements have been audited to ensure the quality of the information source. Out of 400 businesses, there are 31 busineMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF D Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications in the construction and installation industry; 43 enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry and medical equipment; 45 enterprises in the textile and garment industry; 47 enterprises in the fisheries sector (fish, shrimp, clam,...); 54 businesses in the iron and steel industry and 66 businesses in Predicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications the agricultural sector (rice, coffee, pepper,...). Based on the studies, the author selected 14 financial indicators as independent variables for thePredicting the probability of default for small and medium enterprises based on financial indications
credit rating models in the research paper.MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF DMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAMBANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY...0O0...NGUYEN DIEU LINHPREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF DGọi ngay
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