ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028vard University and NBER Christina Patterson. Chicago Booth and NBERJohn Van Reenen, MIT and NBER43739Quarterly Journal of Economics, ForthcomingAbstractThe fall of labor’s share of GDP in the United States and many other countries in recent decades is well documented lint its causes remain uncertai ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028n. Existing empirical assessments typically rely on industry or macro data, obscuring heterogeneity among firms. In this |Mif»er, we analyze micro panADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
el data from t he U.S. Economic Census since 1982 and document empirical patterns to assess a new interpretation of the fall in the labor share based The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028arket concent ration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms, which have high markups and a low labor share of value-added. We empirically nsw’ss seven predictions of this hypothesis: (i) industry sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms; (ii) i ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028ndustries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labor share; (iii) the fall in the labor share will be driven largely bADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
y reallocation rather t han a fall in the unweighted mean labor share across all firms; (iv) the betwwn-firm reallocation component of the fall in theThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028d will exhibit faster growth of productivity; (vi) the aggregate markup will rise more than the typical firm’s markup; and (vii) these patterns should be observed not only in U.S. firms, but also internationally. We find support for all of these predictions.‘This is an extensively revised version of ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028 NBER Working Paper 23396 (Alitor et al, 2iU7a). The project began in 2013 when Alitor and Van Ricnen were both visiting Professors in Harvard EconomiADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
cs, and we are grateful to LEAP for funding the visits. Wo would like to thank Andrei Shleifcr. Pol Ant ias, five anonymous referees, our formal discuThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028sman, Erik Brynjolfsson, Luis Diez-Catalan. Jason Hirman. John I laltiwangcr, Gianmarco Ottaviano. Anna Salomons, Richard Schmalenscc, Lawrence Summers, and participants in numerous seminars for helpful discussions. Arnaud Costinot. has been particularly generous with help on the theoretical model. ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028We acknowledge the excellent research assistance was provided by Brandon Enriquez. Juliette Fournier and Jacopo Orlandi. This research was funded by AADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
ccenture LLC, the Economic and Social Research Council, the European Research Council, IBM Global Universities Programs, the MIT Initiative on the DigThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028Foundation. Disclaimer: Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results haw been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed.I IntroductionMuch research documents a decline i ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028n the share of GDI’ going to labor ill many nations over recent decades (c.g., Blanchard, 1997; Elsby, Hobjin and Sahin, 2013; Karabarbounis and NeimaADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
n, 2013; Piketty 2014). Dao el al. (2017) point to a decline in the lalair share between 1991 and 2014 in 29 large countries that account for about twThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028particularly evident since 2000. The erstwhile stability of t he labor share of GDI* throughout much of the twent ieth century was one of the famous Kaldor (1901) “stylized facts” of growth. The macro-level stability of labor’s share was always, as Keynes remarked, “something of a miracle,” and inde ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028ed disguised a lol of instability at the industry level (Elsby. Hobijn and Sahin. 2013: Jones. 2005). Although there is controversy over the degree toADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
which the fall in t he labor share of GDP is due to measurement Issues such as t he treatment of capit al depreciation (Bridgman. 2014). housing (RogThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028s owners taking capital instead of labor income (Smith, Yagan. Zidar. and Zwick. 2019), there is a general consensus that the fall is real and significant.1There is less consensus, however, on what arc the causes of the recent decline in the labor share. Karabarbounis and Neiman (2013) hypothesize t ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028hat the cost of capital relative to labor has fallen, driven by rapid declines in quality-adj listed equipment prices cs|>ecially of Information and CADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
ommunication Technologies (ICT), which could lower the labor share if t he capital-labor elasticity of sulwtilution is greater than one.2 ELsby, HobjiThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028o do not find that manufacturing industries with greater exposure to exogenous trade shocks differentially lose labor share relative to other manufacturing industries (although such industries do experience employment declines). Addit ionally, we observe a decline in labor’s share ill largely ’The m ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028ain issue in terms of housing is the calculation of the contribution of owner-occupied housing to GDP which is affected by property price fluctuationsADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
. We sidestep this by focusing on the Economic Census which includes firms (the “corporate sector" of the NÍPA), not households. Similarly, the CensusThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028Zidar and Zwick (2019) show that this can account for only an eighth of the decline in the labor share.'Karabarbounis and Neiman (2013) provide evidence for an elasticity above one. but the bulk of the empirical literature suggests an elasticity of below one (c.g., Lawrence, 2015; Obcrfidd and Hava) ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028, 2014; Antras, 2004; Hamcrmcsh, 1990). Illis is a hard parameter to identify empirically, however. Id' improvements that facilitate the automation ofADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
tasks previously' done by labor can direct ly reduce the labor share if worker displacement effects from the automated tasks outweigh increased demanThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028e international exposure is more limited. Piketty (2014) stresses the role of social norms and labor market institutions, such as unions and the real value of the minimum wage. As we will show, the broadly common experience of a decline in labor shares across countries wit h different levels and evo ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028lution of unionization and Other labor market institutions somewhat vitiates this argument?In this paper, we propose and empirically explore an alternADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
ative hypothesis for the decline in the labor share that is based on the rise of “superstar firms." ư a change in the economic environment advantages The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028ed by the most productive firms (‘superstars’) in each sector, those with above-average markups and fielow-average labor shares, grows. Such a rise in superstar firms would occur if consmners have become more sensitive to quality-adjusted prices due to, for example. greater product market, competiti ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028on (e.g., through globalizat ion) or improved sear-ch technologies (c.g., greater availability of price comparisons on the Internet lends to greater bADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
uyer sensit ivity, as in Akerman, Leuven and Mogstad, 2017). Our “winner take most" mechanism could also arise duo to the growth of platform competitiThe Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms*David Alitor, MIT and NBERDavid Dorn, University of Zurich and CEPR Lawrence F. Katz. Harv ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028investment, in proprietary Software to manage their logistics and inventory control see Besson, 2017; ami Unger, 2019). The superstar firm framework implies that the reallocation of economic activity among linns wit h differing heterogeneous productivity and lalror shares is key to understanding the ADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028 fall in the aggregate labor share implications that we test extensively below.This paper’s contribution is threefold. First, we provide microeconomicADKPV-Superstars-QJE-Forthcoming-20191028
evidence on the evolution of labor shares at the firm and establishment level using U.S. Census panel data covering six major si-ctors: manufacturingGọi ngay
Chat zalo
Facebook