Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
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Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
Workshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisUniversity of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, ENB118, Tampa, FL 33620-5350. Ph: (813) 974-1084; Fax: (813)974-2957; Email: pendyala@eng.usf.eduChandra R. Bhat, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Ernest Cockrell Jr. Hall. 6.810, Austin, Texas 78712. Telephone: ( Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis512) 471-4535; Fax: (512) 475-8744; Email: bhat@mail.mexas.eduABSTRACTThis paper is a resource paper on emerging issues in travel behavior analysis thEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
at have implications for the future of the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) in the United States. The paper provides an overview of recent trenWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisrends, the paper presents a series of suggestions regarding how the future NHTS can be enhanced, augmented, and modernized to serve the future needs of planners and researchers in the field. In particular, the paper suggests that the NHTS move towards an activity-based time use survey format incorpo Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisrating questions about attitudes, perceptions, values, information acquisition and use, and decision making processes. In addition, it is suggested thEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
at a component of the NHTS be converted into a multi-day rotating panel to provide data on both short- and longer-term behavioral dynamics. These suggWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisDUCTIONThis resource paper provides an overview of several recent and emerging issues in travel behavior analysis, primarily in the U.S. context. The intent of the paper is to identify and discuss the range of issues of interest to the travel behavior analysis community and the broad implications fo Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisr travel data needs and collection in the future. Although the paper is not a comprehensive review of travel behavior research, it is hoped that the iEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
ssues and data implications discussed in the paper will serve as a starting point for discussions to take place in the workshop at the conference.The Workshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis future travel behavior trends and issues?22. What are the implications of these trends for travel behavior analysis and modeling now and in the future?33. What are the implications of the first two items in terms of travel survey data needs and collection, particularly in the context of the NHTS?Th Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisus, this paper explicitly relates the key issues in travel behavior analysis with the data that is needed for addressing the recent and emerging issueEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
s in the field. However, the paper does not include any discussion about the actual measurement of travel behavior; topics such as survey administratiWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysispassenger travel demand context and does nót address the freight travel behavior arena at all. It is noteworthy, however, that many of the issues identified here are pertinent to freight travel behavior as well and it is envisioned that some of the data implications discussed in this paper would car Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisry over to the freight data collection arena as well.This paper is ot^anized as follows. In the next section, several emerging travel behavior issuesEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
are discussed. In addition, some of the recent trends in demographics and travel demand are presented within this section. The third section focuses oWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisides a discussion of the data implications of emerging travel behavior trends and analysis methods and offers suggestions on how the NHTS of the future can be enhanced for addressing future travel behavior challenges.2TRAVEL BEHAVIOR TRENDSThis section presents an overview of recent and emerging tra Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisvel behavior trends that are likely to have important implications for travel behavior analysis and data collection, at least in the near future.12.1Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
Demographics and Travel DemandAny discussion of trends in travel behavior would be incomplete without an examination of basic demographic and travel dWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisthe scope2of this paper, a few illustrative graphs are presented in this section to provide illustrative examples showing how the Nil I S and other similar data sets (Census Joumey-to-Work. CTPP, etc.) continue to be powerful tools for understanding demographic and travel demand characteristics over Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis time. Much ol this section is based on recent analysis ol the 2001 NHTS data and 2000 Census data done by Polzin and Chu (2004).Figure 1 shows the grEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
owth in household vehicle miles of travel (VM1) relative to population growth from 1977 Io 2001.-•-All Persons (000)Household VMT (000.000)Figure 1. PWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisst several decades. This generally indicates that population growth does not account for all of the household VMT growth and that there is substantial increase in trip making on a per capita basis. Indeed, the annual trip rale on a per capita basis has increased 49 percent from 1977 to 2001 (Polzin Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisand Chu, 2004). Concomitant increases are seen in average travel lime expenditures which have increased from about 46 minutes per person per day in 19Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
83 to about 79 minutes per person per day in 2001 (Polzin and Chu, 2004). However, it is noteworthy that the line graph depicting household VMT over tWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis.Figure 2 shows the average household size over time, rhe decline in household sizes have generally been associated with inc Teases in per capita trip making over the past several decades. There are two potential reasons for tins. First, smaller household sizes (lower number of dependents) leaves a Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysislarger share of income for discretionary expenditures and associated activities. With greater disposable income, people pursue more discretionary actiEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
vities outside home. Second, smaller household sizes are generally associated with lower and looser constraints, children and other dependents may impWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisper capita trip making increased. However, even this trend appears to be nearing3stability with average household sizes virtually bottoming out at about 2.6 persons per household.Figure 2. Declining Household Sizes in United States (1930 to 2000) Source: Polzin and Chu (2004)Two other reasons that h Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisave contributed to the increase in travel demand over the past several decades are the increased labor force participation of women and the increasedEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
driver license holding status for women. While these trends played key roles in increasing travel demand in the past, it is likely that these phenomenWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. U Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysisensed to drive. The percent of males licensed to drive has generally held steady at about the 90% mark. As for females, the percent licensed to drive has consistently increased and has now reached a point where the percent males and percent females licensed to drive are almost equal to one another. Emerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisThus, it appears that driver license holding is approaching saturation for both women and men. Similarly, the percent of women participating in the laEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior Analysis
bor force in the United States is also approaching saturation (Figure 4).4Figure 3. Driver License Holding by Gender (1970 10 2000) Source: Polzin andWorkshop Resource Paper - Full VersionEmerging Issues in Travel Behavior AnalysisRam M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. UGọi ngay
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