Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
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Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions Thorncroft0, J.A. Marengo7, B. Hewitson8, H. Hendon9, c. Jones10, p. Lionello”’Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA). DCAO/FCEN. UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina (carolina@cima.fcen.uba.ar)2Dept, of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Dept, of Agronomy, Iowa sta Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionste University, Ames, Iowa. USA (gutowski@iastate.edu)3Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. University of California. Los Angeles. USA (mechUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
oso@atmos.ucla.edu)4Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India (goswami@tropmet.res.in)5Department of Oceanography. University of Cape TownUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsis@atmos.albany.edu)7Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre (CCST). INPE. São Paulo. Brazil (jose.marengo@inpe.br)8Climate system Analysis Group. University of Cape Town. Rondebosch, South Africa(hewitson@csag.uct.ac.za)9Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research. Melbourne. VIC. Australia(h Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions.hendon@bom.gov.au)10Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping, Sweden(colin.jones@smhi.se)11University of SalentoUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
and CMCC, Lecce. Italy (piero.lionello@pd.infn.lt)411221https://khothuvien.cori!AbstractThe chapter highlights selected scientific advances made underUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsted to a better understanding of the physical processes related to the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction that characterize the monsoon variability as well as to a better knowledge of the sources of climate predictability. The chapter also highlights a number of challenges that are considered crucial Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions to improving the ability to simulate and thereby predict regional climate variability. The representation of multi-scale convection and its interactiUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
on with coupled modes of tropical variability (where coupling refers both to ocean-atmosphere and/or land-atmosphere coupling) remains the leading proUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsation of the mean annual and diurnal cycles continue to be critical issues that reflect fundamental deficiencies in the representation of moist physics and atmosphere/land/ocean coupling. These errors do not appear to be remedied by simple model resolution increases, and they are likely a major impe Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsdiment to improving the skill of monsoon forecasts at all time scales, other processes, however, can also play an important role in climate simulationUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
at regional levels. The influence of land cover change requires better quantification. Likewise, aerosol loading resulting from biomass burning, urbaUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsodels. More work is also required to elucidate mechanisms that give rise to intraseasonal variability. On longer timescales an improved understanding of interannual to decadal monsoon variability and predictability is required to better understand, attribute and simulate near-term climate change and Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions to assess the potential for interannual and longer monsoon prediction.A need is found to strengthen the links between model evaluation at the applicaUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
tions level and process-oriented refinement of model formulation. Further work is required to develop and sustain effective communication among the obUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsch and investment is needed to translate climate data into actionable information at the regional and local scales required for decisions.Keywords Monsoons. Climate Variability. Climate Change. Regional Climate Modeling, predictability.21 IntroductionThe better understanding, simulation and predicti Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionson of climate and its variability at regional and local scales have challenged the scientific community for many decades. These are complex subjects dUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
ue to the physical processes and interactions that occur on space and time scales among the different elements of the climate system. In addition, cliUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionspopulations live.Understanding, simulating and predicting monsoons involves multiple aspects of the physical climate system (i.e.. atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere), as well as the impact of human activities. During the last decades World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has promoted interna Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionstional research programs that have implemented modeling activities and field experiments aimed to the fundamental processes that shape the monsoons. TUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
he WCRP/CLIVAR panel on the Variability of American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS. Mechoso 2000) contributed to the organization of multinational research onUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsan Monsoon Experiment (NAME, Higgins et al. 2006), La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate Project (Berbery et al. 2005), VAMOS Ocean-Cloud- Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS, Wood and Mechoso 200B) in the southeastern Pacific, and more recently the Intra-Americas study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP) Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions Program (Enfield et al. 2009). The West African Monsoon (WAM) has also received considerable attention through the international African Monsoon MultUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
idisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program (Redelsperger et al. 2010). Several observational campaigns, such as the GEWEX/CEOP (Coordinated Enhanced ObservUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionservations for studies on processes and interactions affecting monsoon variability. WCRP also recently sponsored the Asian Monsoon Years (AMY 2007-2012).The chapter presents outstanding scientific advances made under WCRP leadership in understanding, simulating and predicting climate variability and Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionschange at regional scales with an emphasis in the monsoon regions. The chapter also discusses important related challenges to be addressed by the WCRPUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions
community in references to the monsoons2. Regional perspectivesThis section is a brief review of progress in understanding the different monsoon systUnderstanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D. Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regionsnger including climate change. Rather3than being comprehensive, the review highlights major advances made mainly during the last decade.Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon RegionsVera, c.\ w. GutowskP.C. R. Mechoso’, B. N. Goswami4, c. Reason5, c. D.Gọi ngay
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