Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union
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Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union
4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionon people in the United Kingdom headed to their nearest polling station to cast a vote in a national referendum. Another 7.2 million had already cast their ballot by post. When voters looked ar their ballot paper they would have read the following question: ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ That this was a question that aroused strong passions in the electorate was reflected in the factBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
that, at 72.2 per cent, turnout at the referendum reached the highest level of any political contest since the general election in 1992.The 2016 refe4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionrst ever referendum to be held in the United Kingdom, an earlier generation of voters had been asked whether they wanted to stay in what was then called the European Community (the Common Market). In that earlier referendum the people had voted by a margin of two to one to stay in rhe European Commu Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionnity. Although public support for EC membership seemed commanding, it is important to keep it in perspective, as academics David Butler and Uwe KitzinBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
ger (1996: 279) observed at the time: ‘It was unequivocal bur it was also uncnthusiastic. Support for membership was wide but it did not run deep.’The4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unioncountry that was grappling with what was then called ‘the British disease’ - a pernicious combination of steep inflation, high unemployment, low productivity and industrial unrest. Not surprisingly, the UK looked at the economies across the Channel with envy. The second factor was a relatively stron Brexit why britain voted to leave the european uniong and widespread sense of loyalty to the main political parties (Clarke er al. 2004), which were compering in a stable party system, enjoyed support fBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
rom what was still a largely deferential public and which had collectively recommended that the people vote to stay - which they did.12Brexit Introduc4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionron, had initially promised to hold the referendum during his so-called ‘Bloomberg speech' in January 2013, a move that many interpreted as an attempt to fend off growing pressure from a group of backbench Eurosccptic MPs and the sudden rise of a new Eurosceptic party in national politics, UKIP, rhe Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union latter was drawing much of its voting strength from disgruntled Conservatives who opposed F.u membership (Ford and Goodwin 2014).Standing in the LondBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
on headquarters of Bloomberg News, Cameron began his speech by outlining a European continent that looked fundamentally different from that which the 4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union much weaker economies than their West European counterparts. Beginning in 2008, the continent had been hit hard by the Great Recession and a major debt crisis that was especially severe in southern EU member states such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. Unemployment and sovereign debt reached disturbi Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionngly high levels, while the continent struggled to revive economic growth, pay down debt and implement necessary reforms. In sharp contrast to the picBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
ture that had confronted Prime Minister Harold Wilson in 1975, Cameron now talked of a continent that was blighted by a lack of competitiveness, exces4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union10 years earlier had warned the Conservative Party that its tendency to‘bang on about Europe' had alienated voters, now committed his party to holding a referendum on the country’s F.u membership should it form a majority government after the next general election in 2015. When that contest arrived, Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union the Conservative Party asked the electorate for a mandate to negotiate a new settlement with the ELI, after which it would hold an ‘in or out’ refereBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
ndum. Cameron stared: ‘It is time for the British people to have their say. It is time to settle this European question in British politics. Ĩ say to 4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unions political legacy had been defined by a series of gambles - that he could ‘modernize’ a party that pur a premium on tradition; that after the election in 2010 he could successfullyBrexit Introduced3lead the first Coalition Government in the country for nearly 70 years; that in 2011 he could convinc Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unione voters to retain the ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system in a national referendum on electoral reform; that in 2014 he could preserve the UnitedBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
Kingdom by winning a referendum on Scottish independence; and in 2015 that he could not only return to power but deliver to Conservatives something th4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionter the UK’s place in the world, the youngest prime minister for nearly 200 years had gambled once again.Although Cameron would not have known it at the time, by committing rhe country to a vote on its F.u membership he had set himself on a path that would leave him as the third prime minister in po Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionst-war Britain who would forever be remembered for only one thing. After Anthony Eden and the Suez crisis in 1956, then Tony Blair and the war in IraqBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
that began in 2003, Cameron’s legacy would soon forever be associated with the result of the 2016 referendum. But all of that was yet to come. At the4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionty, observed:That belief stemmed, at least in part, from his natural self-confidence: so many of his gambles over the years had paid off, and he was far surer than he should have been that he would be able to extract the kind of eyecatching concessions from other EƯ member stares that would persuade Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union a majority’ of British voters (if nor rhe diehard sceptics in his own parry’) that he had achieved a fundamental change in rhe UK's relationship withBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
‘Brussels’. (Bale 2016)Camcron placed his bet. It would be his last.Many expected Cameron to win. During the campaign otie ‘expert survey’ of nearly 4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union vote to remain in rhe EU and only 5 per cent predicted a Brexit (the remainder thought that both sides had an equal chance).2This widely held belief that, in the end, people would vote to remain in the EU had, in turn, been driven by an assumption that they would choose the least risky path and sid Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unione with rhe status quo. rhe idea was4Brexit Introducedsupported by what we call ‘LeDuc’s law', a regularity in people’s voting behaviour in referendumsBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
discovered by Larry LeDuc (2003), a professor of political science at the University of Toronto. After studying referendums around the world, events 4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionxpressed support for the ‘change option' at the start of the campaign they would increasingly side with the status quo, the less risky option, as the campaign progressed. 1 hey would, after a period of indecision, bet on ‘the devil they knew'. Tn the UK, this belief in aversion to risk and bias towa Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionrds the status quo had been further cultivated by the outcomes of both ar the 2011 referendum on changing the electoral system and the 2014 referendumBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
on Scottish independence.As the country hurtled towards the 2016 referendum this consensus was reflected in an assessment made by The Economist's Int4WHY BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVETHE EUROPEAN UNIONHAROLD 0. CLARKE MATTHEW GOODWIN AND PAUL WHITELEYBrexit IntroducedOn Thursday 23 I line 2016,26.3 millio Brexit why britain voted to leave the european unionnths earlier had won a majority government and was about to throw his full weight behind campaigning for Remain. Then came the voters; while they looked restless, the analysts concluded there was ‘little risk’ of an anti-establishment backlash. ‘Although it is true that anti-establishment feeling is Brexit why britain voted to leave the european union running higher than usual in the UK, and that much of it is directed - albeit in a rather inchoate way - towards Europe, we do not believe that it isBrexit why britain voted to leave the european union
strong enough to sway rhe final result’. In the end, they would side with the status quo. ‘As is often the case when a constitutional referendum is hGọi ngay
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