Econophysics and physical economics
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Econophysics and physical economics
ECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsPeter Richmond, Jurgen Minikes, and Stefan HutzlerOXFORDUNIVERSITY PRESSOXFORDUNIVERSITY PRESSGreat Clarendon Street. Oxford. 0X2 6DP, United KingdomOxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship.ami Econophysics and physical economicseducation by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK ami in certain other countries© Peter RichmoEconophysics and physical economics
nd. Jurgen Mimkcs, and Stefan Hutzler 2013The moral rights of the authors have been assertedFirst Edition published in 2013Impression: 1All rights resECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsrmission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to t he Rights Department, Oxford University Pres Econophysics and physical economicss, al the address aboveYou must not. circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condit ion on any acquirerPublished in the UnEconophysics and physical economics
ited States of America by Oxford University Press198 Madison Avenue. New York. NY 10016, United Slat.es of AmericaBritish Library Cataloguing in PubliECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsYYLinks to third party websites arc provided by Oxford in good faith and for informat ion only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work.PrefaceFinancial assets arc vital parts of the global economy, and an understanding of th Econophysics and physical economicse origin and nature of price movements is crucial to management of risk. The sums of money involved can be measured ill trillions of euros, dollars, oEconophysics and physical economics
r yen—choose any currency you wish, the figures arc huge. Time investments correctly and it is possible to make millions of dollars. Robert Merton of ECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsindex would have grown to 1.370 dollars. However if perfect liming each month had been possible and the money switched between these two investment routes the total by 1996 would have become 2,296,183,456 dollars! Undoubtedly, and despite the ongoing financial crisis, the total in 2012 would have be Econophysics and physical economicscome at least ten times this value, as may be estimated by considering only the main three peaks and troughs in the index since 1996. Really clever peEconophysics and physical economics
ople might have achieved much more by riding rhe smaller waves within the booms and crashes!One should not therefore be surprised that people dream abECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsl this way arc the people who arc least able to afford to lose their slake).During a recent visit to the London School of Economics, Queen Elizabeth II of England is reported to have asked of the economists why they were not able to predict the financial crash of 2008 9. The news item did not give d Econophysics and physical economicsetails of any answer. One suspects no answer was provided. Given this situation it is not surprising that a frequently told joke is that economists diEconophysics and physical economics
sagree with each other so often that they make astrologisls look good.For some years now, many economists have agreed over economic theory. US PresideECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsans now.' According to K. Roy Weintraub, economics professor at Duke University and associate editor of History of Political Economy, Nixon should have said ‘We’re all neoclassical economists now. even the Keynesians, because mainstream economics, rhe subject taught to students today, is neoclassica Econophysics and physical economicsl economics.’ This theory is built on assumptions, such as the rationality of economic agents, the invisible hand, and market efficiency, that have beEconophysics and physical economics
come dogma. Physicist J-P Bouchaud has recently recounted the tale of an economist who once told him. to his bewilderment: ‘These concepts are so stroECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsP Econophysics and physical economicsn economy is better described as a complex system whose properties emerge from rhe interactions of its individual agents. These agents do not always have complete information on which to make decisions; they cannot always be assumed Econophysics and physical economicsECONOPHYSICS & PHYSICAL ECONOMICSpeter RICHMOND I JURGEN MIMKES I STEFAN HUTZLERThis page intentionally left blankEconophysics and Physical EconomicsPGọi ngay
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