Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ
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Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ IN SHORT AND LONG RUNTHESIS OF MASTER IN ECONOMICSHO CHI MINH CITY-2011MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITYPHAM TH I TUYET TRINHTHE IMPAC T OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE IN SHORT AND LONG RUNMajor: Finance and BankingMajor code: 60.31.12THESIS OF Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩMASTER IN ECONOMICSACADEMIC SUPERVISOR: Ph.D NGUYEN VAN PHUCHO CHI MINH CITY-2011ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI would like to send special thanks to all the teacheLuận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ
rs who gave interesting lecture to me for their devoted instruction during my studying in this master course.I am specially thankful to Ms. Ha Thi ThiMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩress my profound sense of gratitude and sincere thanks to Mr. Nguyen Van Phuc, academic supervisor, for suggesting research problems, giving valuable guidance and providing constant encouragementI am particularly indebted to my family, especially my mother and my daughter, who have given me great em Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩotion and encouragement.ABSTRACTThis study shows the short and long-run impact 0Ỉ' exchange rate on trade balance in Vietnam. Following a depreciationLuận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ
of real exchange rate, trade balance initially deteriorates. Trade balance will improve after two quarters and new equilibrium will be set after twelMINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩlar estimation results, showing trade balance improvement following a depreciation. Corresponding error correction modes (ECM) based on long-run cointegration equations also come to consistent results, indicating immediate deterioration of trade balance after a depreciation. Impulse response functio Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩns based on ECM and unrestricted Vector AutoRegression (VAR) exhibit J-curve pattern of trade balance when there is a permanent depreciation.Key word:Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ
exchange rate and trade balance, cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag. J-curveiiCONTENTSAcknowledgement.....................................MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩ...........iiiList of tables.......................................................viiList of figures.....................................................viiiAbbreviations.........................................................ixCHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION1.1Background to the study and statement of pro Luận văn thạc sĩ the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance in short and long run , luận văn thạc sĩblem...................11.2.Research question.................................................2MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH C ITYPHAM THI TUYET TRINHTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONON TRADE BALANCEGọi ngay
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