The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
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The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
Valuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits ado4, Michael Greenstone3,2, TYevor Houser*. Solomon Hsiang5-2, Andrew Huhgren3, Robert Kopp6, Kelly E. McCusker*, Ishan Nath7, James Rising8, Ashwin Rode3, Hee Kwon Seo”, Arvid Viaene10, Jiacan Yuan11, and Alice Tianbo Zhang121 University of California, Santa Barbara aNBER' University of Chicago 'R The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits hodium Group'University of California, Berkeley '■Bulgers University7Prmccton University"University of Maryland ’Tire World Bank "'E.CA Economics “lAtThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
dan University ^Washington and University14th August, 2021’This project is an output of the Climate Impart Lab that gratefully acknowledges funding frValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits nd Tata (Tenter for Development. Tamma (Tarleton acknou'lcdges funding from the US Environmental Protection Agency Science To Achieve Results Fellowship (#FI*917SO'1O1). We thank Trinetta (Thong. Greg Dohbels. Diana Gorge!. Radhika Goyal, Simon GroonhUI, Hannah Hess, Dylan Hogan, Azhar Hic^aln, Stef The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits an Kloe. Theodor Kukzyckl, Brewster Malevich. Sébastien Annan Phan, .lustin Simcock, Emile Tcnczakis, .lingyuan Wang, and .long-kai Yang for invaluablThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
e research assistance during all stages of this project, and Megan Landin. Tarin Mayer, and Jack Chang for excellent project management. We thank DaviValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits hicago. Stanford, Princeton, uc Berkeley. ƯC San Diego, ƯC Santa Barbara, University of Pennsylvania, Univcnũty of San Francisco. University of Virginia, University of Wisconsin-Madison. University of Minnesota Twin Cities, NBER Summer Institute, LSE, PIK. Oslo University, University of British Colu The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits mbia. Gothenburg University, the European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics, the National Academics of Sciences, and the EconomThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
etric Society for comments, suggestions, and help with data.Electronic copy available at. https7/ssm.com/abstract=3224365AbstractUsing 40 countries' sValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits ith climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed preference approach to recover unob The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits served adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and cosThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
ts, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Notably, today's cold locations arc projected to benefit, while tValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits y will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high emissions scenario and using a 2% discount rate, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [-$7.8, $73.0]. Under a moderate emissions scenario, these damages arc valued at $17.1 [-$24.7. $53.6]. The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits 'I’hcsc empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literal lire's est imates by an order of magnitude.J EL Codes: Q51, Q54, 1123, 1 Ml. III.EThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
lectronic copy available at: https://ssm.com/abstract=32243651 IntroductionUnderstanding the likely global economic impacts of climate change is of trValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits mation on the benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reductions. These inconsistencies are reilecled in global climate policy, which is al once both lenient and wildly inconsistent. To dale, the economies literature has struggled to mitigate this uncertainty. lacking empirically founded and globally c The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits omprehensive estimates of the total burden imposed by climate change that account lor the benefitsThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
he more difficult because emissions today influence the global climate for hundreds of years. Thus, any reliable estimate of the damage from climate cValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits nd empirical insights and important findings regarding the economics of climate change, but a fundamental gulf persists between the two main types of analyses. On the one hand, there are stylized models able to capture the multi century and global nature of climate change, such as “integrated assess The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits ment models" (IAMs) (e.g., Nordliaus, 1992; Tol. 1997: Stern, 2006); their great appeal is that they provide an answer to the question of what the gloThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
bal costs of climate change will be. However. lAMs require many assumptions ami this weakens the authority of their answers. On the other hand, there Valuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits (e.g.. Schlcnker and Roberts, 2099; Deschenes ami Greenstone, 2007). Yet these analyses tend to be limited in geographic extent and/or rely on short-run changes in weather that are unlikely to fully account for adaptation to gradual climate change (Hsiang, 2016). Al its core, this dichotomy persist The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits s because researchers have traded oif between being complete in scale and scope or investing heavily in data collection and analysis.This paper aims tThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
o resolve the tension between these approaches by providing cmph'ically-derived estimates of climate change's impacts on global mortality risk. ImportValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits d account for adaptation to gradual climate change. The analysis proceeds in three steps that lead to the paper’s three main findings.first, we estimate regressions to infer age-specific mortality-temperature relationships using historical data. These regressions arc fit on the most comprehensive da The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits taset ever collected on annual, subnational mortality statistics from 40 countries that cover 38% of the global population. The benefits of adaptationThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
to climate change and the benefits of projected future income growth are estimated by allowing the mortalitytemperature response function to vary witValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits ture of the morlality-temperatnre relationship across locations where we lack mortality data, yielding estimates for the entire world.These regressions uncover a plausibly causal u shaped relationship where extremely cold and hot tern perat ures increase mortality rates, especially for those aged 65 The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits and older. Moreover, this relationship is quite heterogeneous across the planet : we find that both income and long run climate substantially moderatThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
e morIElectronic copy available at. https7/ssm.com/abstract=3224365tality sensitivity to temperature. When we combine these results with current globaValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits 50% larger in regions of the world where mortality data arc unavailable. This finding suggests t hat prior estimates may understate climate change impacts, because t hey disproportionately rely on data from wealthy economies and temperate climates. However, we note that because modern populations ha The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits ve not experienced multiple alternative climates, the estimates of heterogeneity rely on cross-sectional variation and they must be considered associaThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
t ional.Second, we combine the regression results with standard future predict ions of climate, income and population to project future climate changeValuing the Global Mortality ConsequencesOE Climate Change Accounting forAdaptation Costs and Benefits*Tamina Carleton1,2, Amir Jiua3,2, Michael Delga The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits ortality rate due to climate change is 73 deaths per 100,(MX) at the end of the century under a high emissions scenario (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), with an interquartile range of [6, 101] due both to econometric and climate uncertainty. This effect is similar in magnitude The values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits to the current global mortality burden of all cancers or all infectious diseases. It is notewort hy that these impacts are predicted to be unequallyThe values global motality consequences of climate change accounting for adapting costs and benifits
distributed across the glol>e: for example, mortality rates in Accra, Ghana are projected to increase by 17% at. the end of the century under a high eGọi ngay
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