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SyntheticLongitudinalData

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SyntheticLongitudinalData

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData Daniel Bonnery*. Yi Fengb, Angela K. Hennebergerc, Tessa L. Johnsonb, Mark Lachowiczb. Bess A. Rosec. Terry Shaw4. Laura M. Stapletonb. Michael E. Woo

lley4, Yating Zhengb. Authors listed in alphabetical order by last name."Joint Program of Survey Methodology. University of Man land. College Park bDe SyntheticLongitudinalData

partment of Human Development and Quantitative Methodology. University of Maryland.College Park* School of Social Work, University of Maryland. Baltim

SyntheticLongitudinalData

oreCitation:Bonnery. D., Feng. Y.. Henneberger, A.K.. Johnson. T.. Lachowicz. M.. Rose. B.A.. Shaw. T.. Stapleton, L.M., Woolley, M.E. & Zheng, Y. (20

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData on Educational Effectiveness, /2(4), 616-647. https:.'.'doi.org/10.1 oso.'l 9345747.2019.1631421Author's Note: The contents of this manuscript were de

veloped under a grant from the Department of Education. However, those contents do not necessarily represent the policy of the Department of Education SyntheticLongitudinalData

, and you should not assume endorsement by the Federal Government. Additionally, this research was supported by the Maryland Longitudinal Data System

SyntheticLongitudinalData

(MLDS) Center. We are grateful for the assistance provided by the MLDS Center. Prior versions of this manuscript were published by the MLDS Center. We

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData the MLDS Center or its partner agencies.SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAAbstractThere is demand among policy-makers for the use of state education longitu

dinal data systems, yet laws and policies regulating data disclosure limit access to such data, and security concerns and risks remain high. Well-deve SyntheticLongitudinalData

loped synthetic datasets that statistically mimic the relations among the variables in the data from which they were derived, but which contain no rec

SyntheticLongitudinalData

ords that represent actual persons, present a viable solution to these laws, policies, concerns, and risks. We present a case study in the development

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData s been utilized thus far, and the potential benefits and concents in its application to education data systems. We then describe our federally-funded

project, proposing the steps required to synthesize a statewide longitudinal data system covering high school, postsecondary, and workforce data. Last SyntheticLongitudinalData

, for use as a template for other agencies considering synthetic data, we review the challenges we have confronted in the development of our synthetic

SyntheticLongitudinalData

data system forresearch and policy evaluation purposes.SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAAdministrative data collected by governments about individuals hold

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData kforce outcomes. However, confidentiality laws and procedures to protect such data typically restrict access to that data to a very limited universe o

f government-employed (or in some cases government-appointed) researchers and policy makers. There are a number of strategics for expanding access to SyntheticLongitudinalData

government data, each having strengths and weaknesses. A common example is provision of aggregated data, which is safe but has limited research potent

SyntheticLongitudinalData

ial. Examples of sources using such a data access strategy include the Slate of Texas, which has a website (http: www.txhighcrcddata.org ) where exten

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData a publicly-accessible website(http:■ www.dpi.state.nc.us'research data ) where datasets and variable dictionaries can be accessed, however, those dat

asets are also aggregated.Disseminating granular individual-level data to a wider, more diverse, group of analysts, scholars, evaluators, and policy r SyntheticLongitudinalData

esearchers may leverage the potential of knowledge advancement toward a broader understanding of how these systems and structures impact our populatio

SyntheticLongitudinalData

n over time: nevertheless, the fundamental responsibility of data agencies remains with the protection of individual privacy. One emerging solution to

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData variables within and across individuals, meaning that statistical analyses with such synthetic data should yield findings substantially similar to the

“rear* data from which it was modeled while simultaneously reducing the risk of privacy breach.SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAIn this manuscript, we deta SyntheticLongitudinalData

il the promise and limitations we have encountered in our ongoing efforts to create a synthetic version of one statewide longitudinal data system for

SyntheticLongitudinalData

the very purpose of increasing access to these valuable data. The core aim of this Synthetic Data Project (SDP), funded by the United States Departmen

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData high school to the workforce. 2) high school to postsecondary education, and 3) postsecondary education to the workforce. We begin with an overview o

f our ongoing project, including the current problems with access to administrative data and the potential for synthetic data to address those problem SyntheticLongitudinalData

s, with a brief review of the synthetic data literature. We then detail the challenges we have confronted in implementation, from constructing the sim

SyntheticLongitudinalData

plified datasets that are the blueprints for synthesization. to selecting the synthesis models to be used, to testing the research utility and safety

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData hetic data to answer substantive research and policy questions. To that end. we address several issues that must be resolved during the creation of sy

nthetic data to ensure end-user utility, data security, and research validity, and we devote the final section to a discussion of how synthetic data m SyntheticLongitudinalData

ight be used strategically to answer questions of relevance to policy and program evaluations.BackgroundState education and longitudinal data systems

SyntheticLongitudinalData

are advancing and growing in number, and the use of these data systems for education and workforce research holds great promise (Figlio. Karbownik, &

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData oa in their development of statewide education data systems (SLDS Grant Program. 2018b). representing an overallSYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAinvestment

of S72I million in federal funding as of May 2018 (SLDS Grant Program. 2018a). This substantial investment provides the data necessary' for assessment SyntheticLongitudinalData

s of program and service efficacy to inform practice and policy decisions. Statewide longitudinal data systems, and administrative data in general, pr

SyntheticLongitudinalData

ovide a number of advantages to researchers as compared to traditional survey measures, including larger data sets, fewer problems with attrition, low

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData -effective approach to answering policy questions because they obviate the need for costly and time-consuming primary data collection.The Maryland Lon

gitudinal Data System (MLDS) is one example of a state longitudinal data system and is the impetus for the present study. The MLDS. and the Center tha SyntheticLongitudinalData

t houses these data, began operations in 2013 after legislation was passed in 2010 to create the data system (Md. Code. Education .Article. §24.701-24

SyntheticLongitudinalData

.707). The State law that established this new agency also called for state agencies to share data to build the longitudinal system, matching unit rec

SYNTHETIC LONGITUDINAL DATAThe Promise and Limitations of Synthetic Data as a Strategy to Expand Access to State-level Multi-agency Longitudinal DataD

SyntheticLongitudinalData o the workforce. The purpose of the MLDS Center is to generate timely and accurate information about student performance and employment outcomes that

can be used to improve the State's education system and guide decision makers. To accomplish this task, the MLDS Center links individual-level student SyntheticLongitudinalData

and workforce data from three State agencies: 1) the Maryland State Department of Education (MSDE); 2) the Maryland Higher Education Commission (MHEC

SyntheticLongitudinalData

): and 3) the Maryland Department of Labor Licensing and Regulation (DLLR). The MLDS Center has an obligation to make data accessible to researchers,

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