DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
Domestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONuga.eduDavid RousseauUniversity of Pennsylvania rousseau@sas.upeim.eduAugust 24. 2004Draft, not for citationAbstractThis paper uses agent-based modeling to study the impact of domestic political structure on the evolution of a democratic peace. We show that democratic peace can emerge even with a ve DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONry limited set of basic assumptions about the relationship between levels of domestic opposition and the costs of initiating conflict. In addition, weDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
find that learning among democracies and autocracies alike reduces both the incidence of international conflict and the rate at which the internationDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONacies that attack democracies) suffices to eliminate any semblance of a democratic peace: democracies become more likely to attack not just autocracies but also other democracies.To be presented at the annual conference of the American Political Science Association. Chicago. IL. 5 Sept. 2004Domestic DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION structure, learning. and the democratic peace1Domestic Structure, Learning, and the Democ ratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational Simulation"DemocrDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
acies dofl't attack each other”— Bill Clinton, Slate of the Union. 1994"We have no desire to dominate, no ambitions of empire. Our aim is a democraticDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONthing we have to an empirical law" in international relations (Levy, 1989: 88), the causal mechanisms behind the observed pattern remain elusive. However, despite our lack of understanding of the empirical patterns, the democratic peace has become the cornerstone of American foreign policy in the po DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONst-Cold War era. This increases the urgency and importance of investigating the causal mechanisms that may explain the democratic peace. In this paperDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
, we present one approach to doing so, using the tool of agentbased computational simulation.We present a computational model of international conflicDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION and for learning. Although the analysis in this paper is largely preliminary', early runs of the model produce a number of interesting findings. First, basic assumptions about the influence of domestic oppositionDomestic structure. learning. and the democratic peace'ĩon a state’s ability (or willin DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONgness) to initiate conflict suffice to produce a pattern resembling the democratic peace. Second, in mixed conflict dyads, democracies are more likelyDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
to escalate to war than are autocracies if they are the challenging state which initiated the conflict, but they are less likely to escalate if they Domestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONinternational conflict as well as slow down the rate of consolidation of states.Finally, and surprisingly, introducing a mechanism by which autocracies that attack democracies are punished not only dramatically increases the incidence of international conflict, but also completely eliminates the dem DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONocratic peace, generating a system in which democracies are noticeably more likely to be at war, regardless of the regime type of their adversary. ThiDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
s finding should give pause to those who advocate trying to create a democratic peace through preventative war against autocracies: doing so may not sDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONng) reveals a complex causal process linking domestic politics to international behavior, and finds both monadic and dyadic causal factors informing the democratic peace. Specifically. Rousseau shows that democratic states are constrained at the initiation phase by the presence of domestic political DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION opposition that can punish a chief executive for using military force. However,Domestic structure, learning. and the democratic peace 3 the use of foDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
rce by an international opponent reduces domestic opposition to the escalation of conflict once democracies are engaged in militarized crises. The chiDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION democracies.The importance of domestic opposition emerges in different forms also from other recent work on the democratic peace (Fearon. 1994: Bueno de Mesquita. Smith. Siverson. & Morrow. 2003; Gelpi & Griesdorf. 2001). It remains somewhat unclear, however, whether domestic opposition factors by DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONthemselves are sufficient to create a democratic peace such as we find it in the empirical data. One possibility is that they suffice to sustain a demDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
ocratic peace but may not generate one by themselves. This raises the issue of the origins of the democratic peace. Cederman (2001a) has shown that thDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONhowever, he finds that such learning is not limited to purely democratic dyads: mixed and purely autocratic dyads also appear to leant to cooperate more peacefully.The present paper investigates these issues systematically by testing the implications of different causal mechanisms for the evolution DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONof a democratic peace. In particular, we examine (1) the empirical patterns that result from introducing recent theoretical insights about the role doDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
mestic opposition plays in democracies as well as autocracies; (2) the impact of different rates of learning from neighboring states on empirical outcDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONexistence to theDomestic structure, learning, and the democratic peace 4creation of a democratic peace.Modeling War and Peace: DoniGeoSimA recurring problem in the democratic peace literature is the limited number of cases available to US. We have only one ’run’ for our world, making it very difficu DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONlt to test the myriad counterfactuals that arise when theorizing different causes for the democratic peace. One way around this restriction is to geneDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
rate additional ‘runs’, by studying the evolution of an artificial world in which states interact, light, and conquer. We apply this approach to the sDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@u DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONine-grained changes in the parameters that govern its world. Additional ‘world histories’ thus generated cannot, of course, tell us anything about how the real world works, but they can tell US a lot about the validity of our theories for explaining real world patterns. For example, if a theory posi DOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONts a certain causal mechanism as the driver behind an empirical pattern, we can program a simulation in which we can vary that causal mechanism, keepiDOMESTIC STRUCTURE, LEARNING, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PEACE AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION
ng all other aspects of the world constant. If the output remains the same nevertheless — and. importantly, if the other components of the model correDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@uDomestic Structure, Learning, and the Democratic Peace: An Agent-Based Computational SimulationA. Haunts van der l een University of Georgia maurits@uGọi ngay
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