Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city ert LempertNidhi KalraSuzanne PeyraudZhbnin Mao Sinh Bach TanDean Cira Alexander LotschThe World BankSustainable Development Network Office of the Chief Economist41395Polio- Research Working Paper 6465AbstractHo Chi Minh City faces significant and growing Hood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city be insufficient as climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from projections made when those efforts were initially planned. This study demonstrEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
ates how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies in rhe face of such deep uncertainty. RoPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city hat is. satisfying decision makers’ objectives in many plausible futures, rather than being optimal in any single estimate of the future. 'This project used robust decision making to analyze Hood risk management in Ho Chi Minh City’s Nhieu Loc-Thi Nghe canal catchment area. It found thatthe soon-to- Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city bc-complctcd infrastructure may reduce risk in best estimates of future conditions, but it may not keep risk low in many other plausible futures. ThusEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
, the infrastructure may nor be sufficiently robust. The analysis further suggests that adaptation and retreat measures, particularly when used adaptiPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city decision making analyses may prove useful in developing countries. It finds that planning efforts in developing countries should at minimum use models and data to evaluate their decisions under a wide range of conditions. Full robust decision making analyses can also augment existing planning effort Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city s in numerous ways.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Sustainable Development Network, and part of the Green Growth KnowledEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
ge Platform’s (GGKP’s) affiliated program on Data and Decision-Making Tools for Green Growth. The GGKP (www.grecngrowthknowkilge.org) is a joint initiPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city d Bank. Publication of this paper is parr of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers arc also posted on the Web at http:// ccon.worldbank.org. lhe authors may b Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city e contacted via alotsch^Hvorldbank.org.Ihe Miey Hese.tnh Working I'aperSeries disseminates the findings of tivrk in progress 10 encourage the exchangeEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
of ideas about development iauet. An obyectiie of the tenet a to get the findings out quickly. even if the presentations are leu titan fully polishedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city rely those of the author!. Ihry do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Detvlopmetu/World Bank and It! affiliated organ! Ml torn, or those of the Executive Director! of the World Bink or the governments they represent.Produced by the Research Support l Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city earnEnsuring Robust Flood RiskManagement in Ho Chi Minh CityRobert l.omporl1, Nidhi Kalra1, Suzanne Ecyraud-, Zhimin Mao2 *, Sinh Bach larv, Doan CiraEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
4, Alexander I olsch4Keywords: decision-making under uncertainty, long-lived infrastructure investments, climate change, flood risk management, adaptaPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city nd Strategy Studies, Hanot Vietnam* Hie World Bank Croup, Wellington, DC, USAThe authors tỉiank I Io Long Pili at the Steel ing Center ỈO1 Flood Control in I Io C1Ũ Mu ill City for his support; the many stakeholders from government, NGOs, and universities in Vietnam tor valuable guidance; Iordan Fis Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city chbach, Debra Knopman, Keith Crane, Ambei laycocks, David Chores, and Henn- Willis from RANI J for advice on model development, project organization,Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
and workshop preparation; Maartjc Wise - Iloevenaars at Ros al I Liskoiling tor linking our project with her firm's flood risk management studies; MarPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city lice Thauvin for collaboration with SCE's I Io Chi Minh City office; Vu (’anh I oan and Nguyen Quynh Anh from the National Institute for Science and I echnology Policy and Strategy Studies, Ngo Cong Chinh, I ran I lian Anh from the Asian Management and Development Institute, and To Quang TocUi horn Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city the Southern Institute of Water Resource Research; and the peer reviewers Richard Damania, Jordan Schwartz Marcelino Madrigal, I auren N. Sorkin, HuveEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
n 1 e, and Igor I .inkov for constructive comments. This work was sponsored by tire World Bank's Cliief Economist for Sustainable’ Development, MarianPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city h City, a low-lying and fast-growing metropolis of 7.4 million people, faces significant and growing flood risk. Periods of intense rainfall regularly inundate the city, as does riverine flooding from the Saigon River and neighboring Mekong Delta. Climate change may worsen these risks. Ho Chi Minh C Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city ity ranks fourth globally among coastal cities most threatened by climate change (Nicholls Ct aJ. 2008), which may increase the frequency of intense rEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
ainfall and swollen rivers. Rising sea levels combined with land subsidence compound the threat. The city's growing role in Vietnam and Southeast AsiaPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city ding.Over the last fifteen years, Ho Chi Minh City has developed plans for and begun to implement numerous infrastructure projects designed to reduce its flood risk. These multi-billion dollar investments include 6000 km of canals and pipes to increase the discharge capacity of the storm water syste Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city m and 172 km of dikes and river barriers for tidal control, based on a plan developed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (IICA) (PCI 1999).Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
These plans were made using best estimate projections available at the time of future climate, socioeconomic, and other conditions.Over the last decaPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city eased by a factor of three, significantly greater than predicted when the infrastructure was planned. Similarly, the past decades have seen unexpected urbanization in low-lying areas, which has increased exposure beyond previous planning assumptions.There is little reason to believe any prediction m Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city ade today will prove more accurate than those of the past. Climate change appears likely to affect the frequency of extreme events over the coming decEnsuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city
ades, but in wavs climate scientists currently have difficulty predicting with high confidence (IPCC 2012). Future socioeconomic conditions may be equPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobe Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city curate predictions. The most effective flood risk management strategies will depend on how trends such as these unfold, as well as how the city's future infrastructure IS built and maintained and how successfully residents adapt their behavior 111 the face of flood risk. Yet such patterns have been Ensuring robust flood risk management in ho chi minh city and will likely remain difficult to project with confidence.Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPolicy Research Working Paper6465Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh CityRobeGọi ngay
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