Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
Policy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachymant Coulibaly[nA WORLD BANK GROUPAfrica RegionOffice of rhe Chief Economist43678Policy Research Working Paper 8993Abstract'This study examines the impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act using the synthetic control method, a quasi-expcrimcntal approach. The novelty in the approach is that Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach it addresses problems of estimation that are prevalent in nonexperimental methods used to analyze the impact of preferential trade agreements. The fiRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
ndings show that most of the eligible countries registered gains in exports due to the African Growth and Opportunity Act. However, the results are vaPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approache able to expand into manufacturing and other industrial goods. The positive trade impacts were largely associated with improvements in information and communications technology infrastructure, integrity in the institutions of legal and property rights, case of labor market regulations, and sound ma Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachcroeconomic environment, including stable exchange rates and low inflation. Undue exposure to a single market, like the United Stares, or few commoditRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
ies may have also restricted rhe gains from trade.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist. Africa Region. It is part of a larger Policy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachearch Working Papers arc also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted ar wkassalRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
uld be cited accordingly, 7hefindings, Interpretation!, and conclusions expressed in thu paper are entirely those of the author!. 7hey do not necessarPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachtin' Directors of the World Bank or the governments they representProduced by the Research Support TeamRevisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act: A Synthetic Control Approach *Woubct Kassa Soulcymanc CoulibalyJF.I. Classification: F1.3 F14 F68 oI 055Keywords Africa Growth Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Synthetic Control Method.Preferential trade agreements. Sub-Saharan Africa, policy evaluation•The findings, interpretatioRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
ns, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors.They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or the couPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachggestions at various stages of this work. We also thank conference participants at the Center for the Study of African Economies (CSAE). University of Oxford for their comments.rhe World Bank. Email: wkassal@worldbank.org! rhe World Bank. Email: scoulihaly2@worldbank.org1 IntroductionSince the intro Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachduction of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in the 1970s. there has been widespread interest in understanding the impact of non-reciprocalRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
trade preferences provided to developing countries. This is due to robust evidence that the expansion of trade boosts growth and development (GrossmanPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachtributed to their effective participation in international trade (Spence et al.. 2008; Connolly and Yi. 2015). Participation of firms in global trade is effective in spreading the benefits of new technology to improve overall welfare (Segerstrom, 2013). Rise in exports following improved access to f Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachoreign markets may lead to the growth of more efficient firms, further inducing increased productivity among firms and across the economy (Melitz, 200Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
3). In addition, increased access to foreign markets, since it induces entry, also yields increases in industry productivity. In line with this evidenPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachies to advanced economies' markets (UNCTAD, 2012). Subsequently, many PTAs have emerged aimed at providing duty free, quota-free market access for LDCs' exports including the GSP, Everything But Anns (EBA), Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA)and AGOA.This study e Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachxamines the impact of one such preferential trade agreement (PTA), the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which was extended by the United StateRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
s (US) to Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries. The objectives in this study are twofold. First, we evaluate the total trade effect of AGOA using the syPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-ApproachAs. Second, we explore possible determinants of the variations in the estimated impact across countries, and review the underlying mechanisms driving the variations. In this effort, we attempt to provide an account of the heterogeneous impacts of AGO A in the region. Findings as to why there are het Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approacherogeneous impacts of AGO A could inform policy in both the design and structure of PTAs as well as in the design of domestic policy instruments necesRevisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
sary to enhance the capacity of economies to take advantage of PTAs.AGOA has been considered essential to promoting trade and. hence, transformation oPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachin which trading partners eliminate barriers to trade and capital flows and encourage the development of a vibrant private sector that offers... thefreedom to expand economic opportunities" (US Congress. 2000). PTAs. in general, are also considered central to the foreign policy strategy as well as i Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachnternational development objectives of developed economies including the US and the European Union (EU). Trade preferences through AGOA provide quota-Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach
free and duty-free imports into the United States for eligible goods expanding the benefits under the GSP program.After close to five decades of implePolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouiey Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approachn very limited and scarce. Limitations in empirical approaches used to analyze impact are also evident. The gravity model has been the workhorse framework to analyze the impact of PT As on trade (e.g. See Anderson and Van Wincoop, 2003; Brenton and Hoppe. 2006; Cipollina and Salvatici. 2010a; Aiello Revisiting-the-Trade-Impact-of-the-African-Growth-and-Opportunity-Act-A-Synthetic-Control-Approach et al., 2010: Gil-Pareja et al., 2014;3Policy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouieyPolicy Research Working Paper 8993Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity ActA Synthetic Control ApproachWotibet KassaSouieyGọi ngay
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