German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
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German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
German EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614 German economics policy and the euro 1999 20104-2-1Published in February 2011 byThe Bruges Group, 227 Linen Hall, 162-168 Regent Street, London W1B 5TBwww.brugesgroup.comBruges Group publications are not intended to represent a corporate view of European and international developments. Contributions are chosen on the basis of their intellectual German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010 rigour and their ability to open up new avenues for debate.About the AuthorRichard Conquest is an economist, hedge fund consultant and author whose rGerman economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
esearch focuses on the many aspects of contemporary economic history and events, market developments and crises. Richard has also authored a number ofGerman EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614 German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010escient publications, including:•How Dangerous is the US Housing Market? Published in September 2006. where he made the first City warning of the financial and economic dangers inherent in that market.•He also made an early warning to the bond markets that British fiscal policy was dangerously incoh German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010erent and economically misaligned in his November 2006 publication titled Gordon Brown: An Entirely Underserved Reputation.•In March 2009 he also authGerman economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
ored the Bruges Group publication Is the Euro Sustainable? This was an analysis of the growing imbalances in the Eurozone and warning of the trouble tGerman EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614 German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010tion. Daiwa Securities. At Daiwa he also ran the Daiwa Securities Research Institute, here he was involved in a very wide range of research activities and became particularly involved in the economics of change in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Richard has also conducted research at the German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010 London School of Economics.Richard has also worked for ABN AMRO in Amsterdam and in the City of London for Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) and atGerman economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
the UK Treasury.Table of ContentsExecutive Summary...................................................5Why the Euro cannot survive with Germany at itsGerman EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614 German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010Rate Policy.....................................25Germany: The Pattern of Trade and Payments.........................38The Impossible Dilemma.............................................504EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIntroductionThe aim of this paper is to assess to what extent Germany - whether by accident or German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010 design - has been a beneficiary of the Euro era. and what negative impact, if any. there has been on the Eurozone's smaller economies.Analysis showsGerman economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
that trade imbalances within the Eurozone centre upon Germany, the most important economy, and by far the largest exporting nation. Germany has substaGerman EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614 German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010. and €104.5 billion and €79.7 billion in the recession years of 2008 and 2009 respectively.This situation is greatly exacerbated by the ECB’s exchange rate policy which (wittingly or not) favours German interests. This is because, at the outset, the German people gave up their beloved D-Mark under German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010an implicit agreement that EMU would never lead to inflation in their country. For this reason the European Central Bank tightens monetary policy whenGerman economics policy and the euro 1999 2010
ever the German economy is in danger of over-heating, regardless of the needs of the Mediterranean economies.The ECB’S Exchange Rate PolicyThe ECB’s eGerman EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614 German economics policy and the euro 1999 2010eal Effective Exchange Rate. Within the Euro it is not possible to ‘fix’ the Real Effective Exchange Rate.German EconomicPolicy and the Euro *1999-2010\German Economic Policy and the Euro 1999 2010Richard Conquest© The Bruges Group 2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564614Gọi ngay
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