Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
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Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
Can Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008s Systems Laboratory,2 MIT Energy Initiative,3 Department of Mechanical EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology77 Massachusetts Avenue, Room E40-417Cambridge, MA 02139idahinus@mit.edu and guiowski@mit.eduAbstractThis work explores the historical effectiveness of efficiency improvements in r Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008educing mankind’s resource consumption. Ten activities are analyzed. including pig iron production, aluminum production, nitrogen fertilizer productioDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
n, electricity generation from coal, oil, and natural gas, freight rail travel, passenger air travel, motor vehicle travel, and refrigeration. The datCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008the quantity of goods and services provided. Thus, the end result over these time periods has been a sizeable increase in resource consumption across all ten sectors. However, there do exist a few examples of shorter, decade-long time periods in which improvements in efficiency were able to match or Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008 outpace increases in quantity. In these cases, efficiency mandates, price pressures, and industry upheaval led to periods of reduced resource consumpDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
tion. These cases suggest that with appropriate incentives, including, for example, efficiency mandates and price mechanisms, future resource consumptCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008iciency, rebound effect* Corresponding Author, phone 617-324-4634. fax 617-258-7471https://khothuvien.cori!IntroductionEfficiency improvements are often touted as effective and unobtrusive means of reducing resource consumption. For many, and perllaps in particular for engineers, the idea that reduc Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008tions in resource consumption, and thus a reduction in the associated environmental impacts of resource consumption, can be achieved through technologDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
y-based solutions is especially attractive. As such, improving efficiency is often mentioned as a critical component of green engineering or design foCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008een embraced as "win-wins" in that they allow for both economic and environmental progress to occur (DeSimone and Popoff 1997, OECD 1998. WBCSD 2000).While encouraging engineers to focus on efficiency improvements certainly has economic and social benefits, the notion that such improvements lead to Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008reductions in resource consumption is less certain. After all. engineers have been pursuing efficiency improvements for centuries yet. during that timDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
e, resource consumption has continued to increase. This increase in resource consumption is not surprising, given the growth in population and the risCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008t outpace increases in the quantity of goods and services provided.The historical data and analyses presented here examine past trends in efficiency and resource consumption across ten activities. In particular, this work focuses on identifying historical cases in which efficiency improvements have Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008resulted in reductions in resource consumption and, looking forward, what insights those cases provide with regards to leveraging future efficiency imDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
provements to realize reductions in resource consumption.BackgroundIn framing the relationship between efficiency improvements and resource consumptioCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008tors that contribute to mankind's impact on the earth. The I PAT identity disaggregates impact (/) into the product of population (P). affluence (A), and technology (T)- It can be written as2,....____, .____ GDP Impactimpact - Population X ————— X ~,(I)Population GDPwhere affluence is represented as Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008 the Gross Domeslit Prtxlut t (GDP) per person anti tec hnology is represented as the environmental impact per unit <>i GDP (Graetlel and Allenby 2003Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
). While this disaggregation allows one to focus on individual aspects of sustainability, it is important to note that these tenns arc not independentCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008regate terms for added resolution. In discussing the role of efficiency improvements in reducing resource consumption, the basic 1PAT identity shown in (1) can be further disaggregated to.,..„............ ..... GDP Quantity Resources . ImpactImpact = Population X ——-7—— Ằ' ' X — X 1— ,-2Population G Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008DP Quantify Resourceswhere “Quantity” refers to (he quantity or level of goods and services provided In a society and "Resources” refers to the amountDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
of resources consumed, hl (2), the affluence term from (1) is represented as the product of GDP over Population - which represents per capita Income Can Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008 in (2) as the product of Resources over Quantity - which represents the resource intensity of the goods and sendees provided - and Impact over Resources - which represents the environmental intensity of resource consumption. It can be easily shown that other variants of the IPA1 identity’, includin Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008g the Kaya Identity and the ImPAC'l Identity, arc in fact contained within (2) (Yamaji et al. 1991. Waggoner and Ausubel 2002).In focusing on the roleDahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008
of technology-based solutions in reducing resource consumption, the population and affluence terms in (2) can be combined, yielding,_____ _______ResoCan Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 Materials Dahmus and Gutowski JIE Sept 2008e further simplified to3Can Efficiency Improvements Reduce Resource Consumption?A Historical Analysis of Ten ActivitiesJeffrey B. Dahmusu’ and Timothy G. Gutowski31 MaterialsGọi ngay
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