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hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1 Mercatus Working Paper series nave rotkxieđ a rigorous process of academic evaluation. inctodin? (except Where otherwise noted) at least one double-b

lind peer review. Working Papers oreseit an author's provisional findings. which. upon further consideration and revision, are likely to be lepubhshed hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

in an academic íourna' ĩhe ooimons expressed .VI Mercatus Working Papers are the authors' and do not represent official positions of the Mercatus Cen

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

ter or George Mason University.OSOMERCATUS CENTERGeorge Mason University3434 Washington Blvd , 4th Floor. Arlington. Virginia 22201 www.mercatus.orgJe

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1versity. Arlington. K4. 2017.AbstractMany believe that central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed), have almost total control over some critical

interest rates. Serious monetaiy economists are more sophisticated. They realize that central bank control over interest rates is very far from comple hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

te. Nonetheless, central bank officials and many economists are largely responsible for the popular misapprehension This is because they persistently

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

and misleadingly describe central bank policy as if it determined interest rates Their focus on interest rates as botli the tar get and indicator of m

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1significance of a central bank's limited effect on real interest rates. There is no denying that central banks have some impacts on interest rates, in

both the short run and the long run However, this working paper argues that not only IS the popular belief 111 precise central bank management of int hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

erest rates simply wrong, but also even the sophisticated view of central bankers and mainstream monetary economists turns out to be overstated. In fa

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

ct, continued targeting of interest rates by central banks has even led to some confusion and policy errors.JEL codes: E43. E52. E58. Bl. B22Keywords:

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1reserves, federal funds rate, monetary target, history of economic thoughtAuthor Affiliation and Contact InformationJeffrey Rogers HummelProfessor of

Economics. San Jose State University jeH@jrhutmnel.comAcknowledgmentsI have received helpfill comments from Warren Gibson. David R. Henderson, Marc Jo hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

ffe. Garett Jones. Daniel Klein, David E w. Laidler, Gerald O’Driscoll. Gonzalo R. Moya, Justin Rietz, Alexander William Salter. Kurt Schuler. George

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

Selgin, Scott Sumner. Alex Tabanok, and Lawrence H White Not all of them agree with my argument, and none are responsible for any remaining errors. Th

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1nder the title "The Myth of Federal Reserve Control over Interest Rates,” Library' of Economics and Liberty. October 7. 2013, http://www econlib.org-'

library' Columns /y2013 Hummelinterestrates htmlCopyright 2017 by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel and the Mercatus Center at George Mason University'This paper hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

can be accessed at https://www.mercatus.org/publications/central-bank-control-interest-ratesCentral Bank Control over Interest Rates: The Myth and the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

Reality Jeffrey Rogers HummelMany believe dial central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (1 cd). have almost total control over some critical intere

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1idely held among the general public, economics journalists, and politicians across the political spectrum, whether or not they approve of the Fed’s cu

rrent actions or even approve of the Fed itself. 1 he belief is not universal—one can find exceptions, and the current persistence of low interest rat hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

es is beginning to undermine it—but It is still pervasive. Il is also mistaken.Serious monetary economists are more sophisticated They realize that ce

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

ntral bankcontrol over interest rates is very far fr om complete. For example. Ben Benianke has written 111 his blog that “If you asked the person in

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1.. .. Except 111 the short run. real interest rates are determined by a wide range of economic factors. including prospects for economic growth—not by

the Fed.”1 * Indeed, the widespread impression that central banks can simply fix interest rates anywhere is inconsistent not only with standard econo hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

mic theory and received economic history but also with what is still taught about how money actually affects interest rates in many mainstream undergr

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

aduate and graduate economics texts.Nonetheless, Bernanke while Fed chair, most other central bank officials, and many economists arc partly responsib

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1..\vww.brookings.edir'blog/ben-beinanke.,2015 OS'SO'why-aie-inteiest-iates-so-low'.3persistently and misleadingly describe central bank policy as if't

í determined interest rates. As George Seigill points out. “Economists and monetary policymakers have tended for some time now to think and speak of m hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

onetary policy as if It weren't about ‘money’ at all. Instead they’ve gotten into the habit of treating monetary policy as a matter of regulating, not

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

the supply of means of payment, but interest rates.”2Thus Bernanke. in the same blog post previously quoted, goes on to muddy matters by stating. “Co

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1tions determine the money supply and thus short-term interest rates: it lias no choice but to set the short-term interest rate somewhere [emphasis his

].”5 Or consider a speech in March 2013. when Bernanke was still at the Fed: “What monetary policy actually controls IS nominal short-term rates. Howe hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

ver, because inflation adjusts slowly, control of nominal short-term rates usually translates into control of real short-term rates over the short and

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

medium term [emphasis his].”* 4 Throughout Bernanke’s enlightening memoir. The Coin age to Act. he invariably invokes interest rates as the sole gaug

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1 111 many editions and versions that are the industry' standard), while otherwise presenting the standard view of how monetary policy may influence in

terest rates, also claim tuiequivocally■' George Selgin. "Monetary Plinier. Part 1: Money.”.4lt-MBiog. Apiil 21.2016. http://www.alt-ni.org/2016/04/21 hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

/a-nionetary-policy-prinier-part-money/.• Bernanke. "Why Are Interest Rates So Low?”4 Ben s. Bernanke. "Long-Tenn Interest Rates,” speech at the Annu

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1

al MonetaryMacroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. San Francisco. Calif

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

hummel-interest-rates-mercatus-working-paper-v1nd Its Aftermath Qicx York: w. w. Norton. 2015).4

https://khothuvien.corT!Central Bank Control over Interest RatesThe Myth and the RealityJeffrey Rogers HummelMERCATUS WORKING PAPERAH sfixfoes XI the

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