Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010981-2010Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Nguyen TrongHoaiStudent:Vu ThiLan PhuongClass:MDE 20Ho Chi Minh City. October 2016ABSTRACTThis study constructed an Early warning system to explain and predict sovereign debt crisis in 31 developing countries whose data is available through the period 1981-2010 at one y Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010ear precedence by employing three-stage strategy with multinomial logit regression. While three-stage strategy allowed selecting the best predictors aLuận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
mong wide range of explanatory variables, multinomial logit regression solved “post-crisis” bias and thus, improved prediction quality. The main findiVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010-associated with sovereign debt crisis. When short-term debt to total external debt ratio grows up or reserves to total external debt ratio decrease, the likelihood of both entering into debt crisis and remaining in debt crisis rises; (iii) The macroeconomic fundamentals significantly affect soverei Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010gn debt crisis: while GDP per capita growth rale is negatively-associated with both entering into and remaining in crisis , inflation only affect posiLuận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
tively post-crisis period; (iv) rhe international liquidity, represented by the thrcc-monlh the U.S. Treasury bill rate, is highly associated with theVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010ion measurements do not impact on sovereign debt crisis. As a result, the study specified a multinomial logit Early warning model predicting sovereign debt crisis al one year precedence with six determinants namely Public debt over GDP ratio. Short-term debt to total external debt ratio. Reserves to Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 total external debt ratio. GDP per capita growth rale, Inflation rate and Three-month the U.S. Treasury- bill rate. In addition, several policy impliLuận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
cations are recommended for the countries to avert sovereign debt crisis.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTFirst and foremost. I would like to take this opportunity to eVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010search work. He was patient and sympathetic towards my delay. His inspiration as well as prompt and intellectual guidance has encouraged me to finish the thesis.Finally, I would like to express my deepest grateful to my family, my colleagues and my friends for their continuous encouragement and supp Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010ort during the time I were busy with the study. Thanks to their understanding and help, my thesis was finally completed.TABLE OF CONTENTSCHAPTER1: INTLuận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
RODUCTION.............................................11.1RESEARC H STATEMENT............................................11.2RESEARC H OBJECTIVES.....VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010.......................2CHAP TER 11: Lil ERA IT RE RE VIEW......................42.1SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS .AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM.........................................42.1.1Sovereign debt crisis................................................................42.1.2Early warning system IEWS)..... Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010......................................................62.2THEORET ICAL LITERATI RE ON DEBI DEFAULT................................................72.2Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
.1Model of debl overhang...............................................................72.2.2Model of debl repudiation................................VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010isis and liquidity measures..............................................112.3.2Sovereign debt crisis and solvency measures...............................................122.3.3Sovereign debt crisis and macroeconomics nindamentals.....................................132.3.4Sovereign debt crisis and Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010external trade link.............................................132.3.5Sovereign debt crisis and political institutions...............................Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
...........142.3.6Sovereign debt crisis and global liquidity................................................152.4( H \PTER REM ARKS16CHAPTER ill: RESEVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010......20VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSissEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19Gọi ngay
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