An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
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An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
John J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationssis in 56 EquationspalgravemacmillanJohn J. HeimUniversity at Albany-SUNY, Albany, New York, USAISBN 978-3-319-50680-7 e-ISBN 978-3-319-50681 -4https://doi.org/! 0.1007/978-3-319-50681 -4rhe registered company address is: Gcwcrbcstrassc 11. 6330 Cliam, Switzerlandlibrary of Congress Control Number: An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations2017940494(C The Edilor(s) (ifapplicable) and The Aulhor(s) 2017Ulis work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by thAn econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
e Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitaJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationsion, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology' now known or hereafter developed.The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, senice marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from th An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationse relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the aAn econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
dvice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the dale of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editoJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationslisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.Cover illustration: T.yroky / Alamy Slock PhotoPrinted on acid-free paperUlis Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by springer Nature The registered company is springer International Publi An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationsshing AGTills book is dedicated to Susan who has given me so muchPrefaceI left academic life in 1972, after getting my Ph.D. At that time large-scaleAn econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
econometric modeling of the economy was the rage: everyone thought it would be just a matter of time before we had “done enough science" to allow econJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationshey represent. Economics would become the next branch of engineering, or so many thought.Much to my surprise, when I returned to academic life 25 years later tilings had not much progressed. Most economists were still using alphas and betas to describe how one variable affects another in economics. An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationsFor lack of vigorous, concerted effort over those 25 years to pursue the hard numbers underlying the theories, and their statistical significance, ecoAn econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
nomists were still just discussing theories with the best “numbers" we had - the abstract alphas and betas of pure theoretical discourse. Because we hJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationshe overriding emphasis in economic theory was not on “what works?”, but on “what's new?".My engineering students knew the difference. When I tried to describe macroeconomics as real science , and then described the coefficients that connect one variable to another in alphas and betas, instead of rea An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationsl numbers, they just snickered. “Yes, but what is the real relationship?" they would ask, meaning what are the real numbers? “And if you don't have thAn econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
em why do you call this science?" they would ask. Certainly in their engineering courses, where every equation describes what actually works, they w eJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations Tinbergen, Goldberger, Klein, Eckstein, and Fair the past 80 years to determine what works. That is, the effort to convert economics from just theory to hard (by which I mean reliable) science. Doing so requires three tilings.First, it requires that the postulates we test have some economic meaning An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations, and not be just some collection of variables we are “running up the flagpole," to see what happens.Second, it requires that the theory-based postulaAn econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
tes we test are structured loosely enough so that the data determine what is real. i.e.. the exact shape and content of the theory being tested. It isJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationse, is correct, or w hether Freidman's, w hose principal determinant is average income (permanent income) is correct.Third, it is not for us to claim some empirical result proves some theory is correct, simply because it explains some variation in the economy, insớ/Hể time period. in sow economic mod An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationsel. To be correct, it should explain most variance, in most or all time periods, in most or all models.This book tries to adhere to these three rules,An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations
we think successfully. To meet the first condition, its model is built around the theory that we found most consistent with the data. To meet the secJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural Analys An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationser or investment spending. Third, a large-scale econometric model is needed to capture all the sources of economic variation, and that's what is used. Extensive robustness testing was used to prove that any initial statistical finding was real and not just some spurious artifact of the time period o An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equationsr particular model tested.John J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural AnalysJohn J. HeimAN ECONOMETRIC MODELOF THE US ECONOMYStructural Analysis in56 EquationsJohn J. HeimAn Econometric Model of the US EconomyStructural AnalysGọi ngay
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