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Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

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Nội dung chi tiết: Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products, Magdalena Balmaseda3, Nicolas Fern-4, Yosuke Fujii5, Ichiro Fukumori1, Benjamin Giese6, Patrick Heimbach , Armin KốhP, Simona Masina9, ElisabethRem/

, Anthony Rosati10, Michael Schodlok1, Detlef Stammer2, Anthony Weaver11l*Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grov Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

e Dr., Pasadena,California 91109, USA‘Kyoto University. Kyoto, Japan’European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading, United Kingdom4Mercat

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

or-Ocean, Toulouse, France’Meteorological Research Institute. Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan6Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsaneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica eVulcanologia, Bologna, Italy‘“Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National O

ceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Princeton, New Jersey, USA“Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

,France*Corresponding author: Phone: +1-818-354-1401. Fax: +1-818-354-09661AbstractMonthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughfl

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

ow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with obs

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products93-2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004-2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. A

ll but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the average scatter Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

among different ODA estimates is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. T

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

herefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasona

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productstter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is fo

und between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18-km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agre

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

ement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10-15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsa weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after2Ilian before 1980,

reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations alter the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-ycar period (e Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

.g.. the span of the INSTANT Program) lo describe longer-lerm mean, we investigate the temporal variations OÍ the thrcc-ycar low-pass ODA estimates, i

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

hc median range of variation is about 3.2 Sv. which is largely due to I he increase OÍ ITT transport from 1993 lo 2000. However, the three-year averag

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productslow (ITF) is the only low-latitude connection between major oceans. Many studies have discussed the important roles of ITF in global ocean circulation

and climate on a wide range of time scales (e.g.. Gordon 1986 and 2001, Hirst and Godfrey 1993 and 1994, Godfrey 1996, Schneider and Barnett 1997, Sc Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

hneider 1998, Murtugudde et al. 1998, Rodgers el al. 1999, Wajsowicz et al. 2001, Lee el al. 2002, Vranes et al. 2002, Song et al. 2007, McCreary et a

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

l. 2007, Potemra and Schneider 2007a). The knowledge about the variability of ITF transport is vital to the understanding of the underlying physics an

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsd geometry in the Indonesian Seas with many passages into the Indian Ocean. This is compounded by the fact that the ITF is associated with large varia

bility over a wide range of time scales. As a result, past estimates of ITF transport based on various in-situ measurements with limited spatial scope Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

and temporal duration exhibit relatively large differences with a range from almost 0 to 30 Sv (1 Sv = 10* m3/s) (see the summary by Godfrey 1996). T

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

he recent observational program International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT, http://http://www.marine.csiro.au/~cow074/index.htm) pr

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products al. 2009, and Van Aken et al. 2009). The transport estimates derived from the INSTANT Program serve as an important source to understand the 1TF and

to evaluate modeling assimilation products. Global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products synthesize various observations and offer a potentially impo Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

rtant tool to study the 1TF and provide feedback to observational systems, especially on longer lime scales where sustained direct measurements of 4th

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

e ITF are not yet accomplished. However, the consistency and fidelity of these products need to be investigated. In this study, ITF transports estimat

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products transport estimate derived from INSTANT observations to evaluate their fidelity. All the global ODA systems strive to improve the simulation of the c

limatically important ITF transport given the constraints on available resources. Therefore, the evaluation of the consistency and fidelity of their e Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

stimated ITF transport would provide useful feedback to ocean modeling and assimilation efforts. Moreover, the discrepancy (or consistency) among the

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

ODA estimates also provide a metric for the accuracy of observational estimate that can distinguish the quality of different ODA estimates.The specifi

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsconsistency better for some time scales than others? (3) Is the discrepancy among the ODA estimates large enough to overwhelm the variability represen

ted by the ODA estimates? (4) Does the consistency of the ODA estimates improve as the volume of observational data being assimilated increase in time Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

? (5) What can we learn from the comparison among the ODA products and with the INSTANT estimate in terms of improvements needed for the modeling and

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

assimilation systems? (6) How representative would a three-year average (e.g., during the INSTANT Program period) be in describing a longer term mean?

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsould be useful to the modeling, assimilation, and observational communities. The paper is organized as follows: the ODA systems and products are brief

ly described in the next section; section 35presents (he results of the intercomparison among ODA products and with INSTANT estimate. The findings are Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

summarized in section 4.2. Ocean Data Assimilation Products

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-thronghflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation productsTong Lee1', Toshiyuki Awajf,

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