Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
Running head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections erspective on Voting ResultsRobert R. Prechter. Jr.’Deepak Goelb Wayne D. ParkerMatthew Lampert’-'■' Corresponding authors. Socionomics Institute, 200 Main St. Ste. 350, Gainesville, GA30501. USA: rprechterffsocionomics.net. deepakgffsocionomics.net.mattiff socionomics.net.b Emory University School Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections of Medicine, currently on inactive status. 4651 Roswell RoadNE Ste. H-701. Atlanta. GA 30342. USAc University of Cambridge: Faculty of Human. Social aSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
nd Political Science: Departmentof Sociology: Free School Lane; Cambridge; CB2 3RQ; United Kingdom.January 17. 2012Revised: September 27, 2012© 2002-2Running head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections ctWe analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent's vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We f Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections ind no significant relationships between the incumbent's vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’sSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of econoRunning head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections ood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP. inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.Keywords: economic voting; presidential elections; incumbent; social mood; Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections socionomicsElectronic copy available at: i *p.//ssm icom/abstracU1987160SOCIAL MOOD. STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS3Social Mood. Slock Market PeSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
rformance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Perspective on Voting ResultsIntroductionWhile many researchers have investigated stock market Running head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections hen they have, the data were usually limited to the elcction-year performance of the market mid only a subset of elections (Bicwald. 2003; Chan and Jordan. 2004; Gleisner, 1992). Tn this paper, we examine the net percentage change in the stock market in the years preceding all American presidential Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections re-election bids. For this study, ''re-election" is an election featuring an incumbent president, whether or not he initially obtained office via an eSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
lection.We find a significant positive relationship between the stock market’s net percentage change during the three years prior to a re-election bidRunning head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections election are each a weaker yet significant predictor of re-election outcomes. Our results arc robust to multiple variations in the elements of the testing procedure: measures of the stock market s performance, measures of election outcomes, statistical methods used to gauge the relationship between Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections the two, durations of data, and the presence of additional variables, rhe relationship docs not extend to the incumbent party’s candidate when rhe incSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
umbent does not mil. We find that relationships between the mcuuibeiil’s popular vote margin percentage and the preceding net percentage change in groRunning head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections S4rate are often insignificant and always weaker than those between the incumbent's popular vote margin and net percentage change in the stock market.Our results contribute to the literature by elucidating the relative value of stock indexes for election forecasting models, challenging economic voti Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections ng hypotheses, exploring an underlying motivator of financial and political choice, suggesting a strategy for political party officials and candidatesSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
, and offering ideas for future research. At the theoretical level our findings are consistent with Piechter’s (1979. 1999. 2003) socionomic theory, wRunning head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections iously credit or blame the leader for their mood.Economic VotingMany political scientists hypothesize that changes in economic variables cause changes in other social variables such as stock market trends, public mood and voting results (e.g. Fair. 1996. p.132). A number of researchers have characte Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections rized the relationship between voters and their elected officials in terms of two types of variables: popularity functions, which are primarily economSocial mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections
ic factors thought to influence voters' views toward their leaders positively or negatively (Lewis-Beck and Paldam. 2000; Mueller, 1970; Nannestad andRunning head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic Pe Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections conomic variables to cuny voters' favor (Alesina, Roubini and Cohen, 1997; Brender and Drazen. 2005; Fair. 1978; Kramer. 1971). Many authors have combined vote Social mood, stock market performance and u s prisidential elections Running head: SOCIAL MOOD, STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE & ELECTIONS 1Social Mood. Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections:A Socionomic PeGọi ngay
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