Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
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Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2tical Approach*Leonid E. GrininVolgograd Center for Social ResearchABSTRACTThere is no doubt that periodization is a rather effective method of data ordering and analysis, but it deals with exceptionally complex types of processual and temporal phenomena and thus it simplifies historical reality. Ma Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2ny scholars emphasize the great importance of periodization for the study of history. In fact, any periodization suffers from one-sidedness and certaiResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
n deviations from reality. However, the number and significance of such deviations can be radically diminished as the effectiveness of periodization iGrinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2uggest a model of periodization of history based on our theory of historical process. We shall also demonstrate some possibilities of mathematical modeling for the problems concerning the macroperiodization of the world historical process. This analysis identifies a number of cycles within this proc Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2ess and suggests its generally hyperexponential shape, which makes it possible to propose a number of forecasts concerning the forthcoming decades.WheResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
n we speak about some global general theories, like macroperiodization of the world historical process, any figures, cycles, diagrams and coefficientsGrinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 to be too much approximate and unreliable. Thus, for general theories covering immense distances in time and space, the main proves are a good76 Social Evolution & History / September 2007empirical basis, logics, internal consistency and productivity of theoretical constructions; that is, a theory’ Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2s ability to explain the facts better than other theories do. On the other hand, any theory is better when it is supported by more arguments. MathematResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
ical proofs can be rather convincing (when they are relevant, of course). This is especially relevant with respect to those aspects that are more liabGrinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 analysis and quite suitable for it. This is the temporal aspect of history. Its suitability for mathematical analysis is connected with the following: though it is quite possible to speak about the tendency of historical time toward acceleration (and this is the subject of the present article), the Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 astronomic time remains the same. Thus, within this study we have a sort of common denominator that helps to understand how the ‘numerator’ changes.Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
Hence, we believe that for the analysis of the periodization of history the application of mathematical methods is not only possible, but it is also rGrinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 1988; Bentley 1996; Stearns 1987; McNeill 1995; Manning 1996; Goudsblom 1996; White 1987; Diakonoff 1999; Ershov 1984; Zhigunin 1984; Pavlenko 1997, 2002; Rozov 2001a, 2001b; Semenov 1999; Korotayev 2006). Gurevich emphasizes that ‘the human thought cannot avoid dividing the historical process into Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 definite periods’ (2005: 681). There is no doubt that periodization is a rather effective method of data ordering and analysis, but it deals with excResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
eptionally complex types of processual, developmental and temporal phenomena and thus, it simplifies historical reality. This might be the reason why Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2g., Shanks and Tilley 1987; see also Marcus and Feinman 1998: 3; Shtompka 1996: 238). One may agree that the contraposition of process and stages is a false dichotomy (Carneiro 2000) because stages are continuous episodes of a continuous process, and the notion of process can be used for the develop Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2ment of the notion of stages (Goudsblom 1996).Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 77In fact, any periodization suffers from oResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
ne-sidedness and certain deviations from reality, but as Jaspers noted, ‘...the purpose of such simplifications is to indicate the essentials’ (1953: Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2with its author’s understanding of the rules and peculiarities of this methodological procedure (for more detail on these procedures see Grinin 1998b: 15-28; 2003a: 67-78; 2003b: 219-223; 2006a; 2006b; 2007a; see also Shofman 1984). Unfortunately, insufficient attention is paid to these issues (and Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2periodization problems in general), which leads to serious problems. In particular, to develop a periodization one needs to observe the rule of the ‘sResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
ingle basis’, that is, to use the same criteria for the identification of periods with the same taxonomical significance, whereas many periodizations Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 base themselves on the following scheme: Antiquity - Middle Ages - Modern Age (see Green 1992).The second point is how well the periodization bases are reasoned, and how they are connected with a scholar's general theory, as well as with the goal of periodization. Different scholars choose differen Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2t bases for periodization, ranging from changes in the types of ideas and thinking (e.g., Comte 1974 [1830-1842]; Jaspers 1953) to ecological transforResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
mations (Goudsblom 1996) and intercultural interaction (Bentley 1996). Many scholars, ranging from the 18th century thinkers (Turgot, Barnave, FergusoGrinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2e observed depending on the choice of criteria. Too often, when scholars ascribe absolute meaning to the chosen factors, in Pitirim Sorokin’s words (Sorokin 1992: 522), ‘they turn out to be partially right, but one-sidedly wrong at the same time’. Some do not think at all about the connection betwee Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2n periodization and theory (on this issue see Stearns 1987; Bentley 1996), or periodization is used as a son of ‘headband’ for the main theory (e.g.,Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
Toffler 1980).In this article we suggest a model of periodization of historical process based on our theory of historical process. The full78 Social EGrinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2inin 1998b, 2000, 2003a, 2003b, 2006b, 2007a). Thus, here we shall concentrate on a brief description of the essence and chronology of periodization; we shall also demonstrate the possibilities of mathematical modeling of temporal processes and temporal cycles in historical development. It is import Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2ant to state the following reservation: this periodization can only be applied to world historical process (further denoted as ‘historical process’) aResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
nd to a considerable (but not to the full) degree to the evolution of World-System (interpreting it after the manner of Andre Guilder Frank [Frank 199Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2e directly applied to the histories of particular countries and societies only by means of special and rather complicated methodological procedures. Its task is to define a scale for measurement of processes of the development of humankind and to mark possibilities for intersocietal comparison.A few Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 words are necessary in order to clarify our understanding of the ‘historical process’ notion (for more detail see Grinin 2003a). The first point to bResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
e made is that this notion is in no way synonymous with ‘world history’1. Of course, the notion of historical process is based on world history facts,Grinin / Production Revolutions and Periodization of History 75Production Revolutions andPeriodization of History:A Comparative and Theoretic-mathemat Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2 facts has been ordered and interpreted in accordance with the analyzed spatial and temporal scales, trends and logics of historical development of humankind as a whole, as well as the present-day results of this development. In other words, historical process is in no way a mechanical sum of the hi Resource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2stories of numerous peoples and societies, it is not even just the process of temporal movement and development of these people and societies. The hisResource for Worksheets CHEMCP1Workbookv411_12.doc Rsource for Worksheets-2
torical process is a growing and even cumulative process of societal integration that has a certain direction and result. The notion of the historicalGọi ngay
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