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study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

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study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australianuary 24.2016ContentsI.Introduction........................................................................2IISummary of Opinions.....................

............................................3III.Timing and Objectives of PlainPackaging............................................4IVMethodology: Be study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

fore-After Regression Analysis of Smoking Prevalence.................5V.Roy Morgan Data...............................................................

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

......6VI.Empirical Model.....................................................................7A.Smoking Status.......................................

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia............................................10D. Time Trend......................................................................11VII.Descriptive Sta

tistics............................................................12vin.Regression Results........................................................... study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

....14IX.Conclusion.........................................................................20Appendix A - Curriculum Vitae...........................

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

................................21Appendix B - Masking of Root Behavior Changes in Smoking Prevalence.....................29Appendix c - Multiple Regr

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia..33Report of Dr. Tasneem C hiptv January' 24, 2016T. Introduction1.My name is lasneem Chipty. 1 am a Managing Principal of Analysis Group. Inc., an e

conomic and business, consulting film headquartered in the United Stares. I specialize in industrial organization the study of how markers function, i study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

ncluding the choices consumers make, the competitive interactions among firms, and the effect of regulation on marketplace behaviors. I also specializ

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

e in econometrics the application of statistical methods, including regression models, to study empirically marketplace behaviors. 1 have served on th

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australiarganization, regulatory policy, and econometrics. 1 am the author or coauthor of several academic articles, published 111 peer-reviewed journals inclu

ding the American Economic Review and the Review of Economics and Statistics, all of which use empirical methods to study consumer choice and films' p study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

ricing decisions.2.I have been a consultant to a variety of businesses and government agencies, including the Government of Australia, the United Stat

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

es Department of Justice, the United States Federal Comnuuiications Commission, and the Massachusetts Health Policy- Commission. I have previously sub

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australiaAct ("TPP Act”). As part of this work. T have studied the effects of tobacco control policies 111 Australia, including tobacco plain packaging, on smo

king prevalence and consumption.3.1 received my Ph D. in Economics horn the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1993 and my B.A. degree in Econom study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

ics and Mathematics from Wellesley College in 1989. A copy of my resume is attached as Appendix A. It describes my background, including education, pu

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

blications, and testimony experience.I. 1 have been retained by Australia's Department of Health to assess. Ill my capacity as an independent expert,

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australiaindividual-level Sliney data, over the period January 2001 to September 2015, from Roy MorganResearch, an independent entity that collects nationally

representative information on the smoking behavior of Australians aged 14 and above.1 These data, which span time periods both before and after plain study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

packaging, enable me to study the early effects of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia * *5.I understand that the TPP Act involved repl

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

acing branded tobacco packaging with plain packaging. At the same time. Australia introduced updated and enlarged graphic health warnings on tobacco p

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australiadated and enlarged graphic health warnings without making restr ictive assumptions.4 As such, my discussion of the effects of the TPP Act encompasses

effects from both of these changes, to which I refer collectively as the 2012 packaging changes.IL Summary of Opinions6.Drawing on my training and exp study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

erience as an economist and my statistical analysis of the Roy Morgan survey data, it is my opinion that the evidence is consistent with the conclusio

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

n that the TPP Act is having its intended effect. Tire evidence indicates clearly that the combination of plain packaging and updated and enlar ged gr

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia of 0.55 percentage points over the post-implementation period, relative to what the prevalence would have been without the packaging changes. The 95

percent confidence interval around the estimated reduction in smoknrg prevalence rs -0.095 to -1.01 percentage points. Because plain packaging is inte study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

nded to deter smoking initiation, promote cessation, and deter relapse, the benefits of the packaging changes will likely grow over time.Roy Morgan Re

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

search. “Smoking Overview: Single Source.” July 23.2014 (hereinafter "RMSS Smoking Overview"), p. 2.Smoking prevalence is measured using individual re

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia tobacco products, like roll-your-own cigarettes, cigars, or a tobacco pipe, in the last month. Sec discussion 111 paragraph 19 below.Competition and

Consumer (Tobacco) Information Standard 2011.1.5 and 2.2. and Part 9. Division 4.* Separating the effects is complicated by the presence of an interac study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

tion effect - that is. one of the mechanisms tluough which plain packaging could reduce smoking is by inci easing the effectiveness of graphic health

study-of-the-impact-of-the-tobacco-plain-packaging-measure-on-smoking-prevalence-in-australia

warnings.

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

https://khothuvien.cori!Study of the Impact of the Tobacco Plain Packaging Measure on Smoking Prevalence in AustraliaRe|X>rt of Dr. Tasneem ciliptyJan

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