Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
➤ Gửi thông báo lỗi ⚠️ Báo cáo tài liệu vi phạmNội dung chi tiết: Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 981-2010Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Nguyen TrongHoaiStudent:Vu ThiLan PhuongClass:MDE 20Ho Chi Minh City. October 2016ABSTRACTThis study constructed an Early warning system to explain and predict sovereign debt crisis in 31 developing countries whose data is available through the period 1981-2010 at one y Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 ear precedence by employing three-stage strategy with multinomial logit regression While three-stage strategy allowed selecting the best predictors amLuận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
ong wide range of explanatory variables, multinomial logit regression solved “post-crisis” bias and thus, improved prediction quality, rhe main findinVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 associated with sovereign debt crisis. When short-term debt to total external debt ratio grows up or reserves to total external debt ratio decrease, the likelihood of both entering into debt crisis and remaining in debt crisis rises; (iii) rhe macroeconomic fundamentals significantly affect sovereig Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 n debt crisis: while GDP per capita growth rate is negatively associated with both entering into and remaining 111 crisis , inflation only affect posiLuận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
tively post-crisis period; (iv) The international liquidity, represented by the three-month the U.S. Treasury bill rale, is highly associated with theVIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 ion measurements do not impact on sovereign debt crisis. As a result, the study specified a multinomial logit Early warning model predicting sovereign debt crisis at one year precedence with six determinants namely Public debt over GDP ratio. Short-term debt to total external debt ratio. Reserves to Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 total external debt ratio. GDP per capita growth rate. Inflation rate and I hree-monlh the U.S. I reasury bill rate. In addition, several policy implLuận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
ications are recommended for the countries to avert sovereign debt crisis.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTFirst and foremost, I would like to take this opportunity to VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 search work. He was patient and sympathetic towards my delay. His inspiration as well as prompt and intellectual guidance has encouraged me to finish the thesis.Finally. I would like to express my deepest grateful to my family, my colleagues and my friends for their continuous encouragement and supp Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 ort during the lime I were busy with the study. Thanks to then understanding and help, my thesis was finally completed.TABLE OF CONTENTSCHAPTER I: INTLuận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
RODUCTION.........................................................11.1RESEARC H STATEMENT.........................................................11.2VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 .......21.4RESEARCH STRUCTURE..........................................................2CHAPTER ĨĨ: LITERATURE REVIEW...................................................42.1SOVEREIGN DEBI CRISIS AND EARLY WARNING SYS I EM............................42.1.1Sovereign debt crisis......................... Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 ..........................42.1.2Early wanting system (EWS)..............................................62.2THEORETICAL LITERATURE ON DEBT DEFAULT....Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
..................................72.2.1Model of debt overhang..................................................72.2.2Model of debt repudiation.......VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19 Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 nd liquidity measures............................112.3.2Sovereign debt crisis and solvency measrres.............................122.3.3Sovereign debt crisis and macroeconomics Cinniamcnlals..................132.3.4Sovereign debt crisis and external trade link..........................132.3.5Sovereig Luận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010 n debt crisis andỊxdilical institutions........................142.3.6Sovereign debt crisis and global liquidity.............................152.4CHAPLuận văn thạc sĩ early warning system for sovereign debt crisis in developing countries for period 1981 2010
TER REMARKS............................................................16VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMMEFOR M.A. IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICSÍSSEARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISISIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR PERIOD 19Gọi ngay
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