Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
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Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-GrowthRESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 December 1995This is a substantially revised version of our earlier paper, "Natural Resources and Economic Growth," Harvard Institute for International Development, January 1995. We wish to thank Alan Taylor and participants in the HUD research Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthretreat for helpful comments, Robert Barro, Jong-Wha Lee, Brad DeLong, Lawrence Summers, Robert King and Ross Levine for kindly sharing an extensive aSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
mount of data with us from their previous work. Wc would also like to thank Jeff Kerzner and Jennifer Harris for helping with the date. This paper is NBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthe of the National Bureau of Economic Research.© 1995 by Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.https: //k hot h u Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth vien .comNBER Working Paper 5398 December 1995NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTHABSTRACTOne of the surprising features of modem economicSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we shoNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthriod 1971-89. This negative relationship holds true even after controlling for variables found to be important for economic growth, such as initial per capita income, trade policy, government efficiency, investment rates, and other variables. We explore the possible pathways for this negative relati Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthonship by studying the cross-country effects of resource endowments on trade policy, bureaucratic efficiency, and other determinants of growth. We alsSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
o provide a simple theoretical model of endogenous growth that might help to explain the observed negative relationship.Jeffrey D. SachsHarvard InstitNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-GrowthStreetCambridge, MA 02138Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth’Section 1, Introduction,One of the surprising features of economic life is that resource-poor economies often vastly outperform resource-rich economies in economic growth. The basic pattern is evident in a sample of 97 developin Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthg countries in Figure 1, where we graph each country's annual growth rate between 1970-89 in relation to the country's natural resource-based exportsSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
in 1970, measured as a percent of GDP. Resource-based exports are defined as agriculture, minerals, and fuels. On average, countries with a high valueNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthter controlling for other relevant characteristics of the economies, such as initial income levels and trade policies.The oddity of resource-poor economies outperforming resource-rich economies has been a constant motif of economic history. In the seventeenth century, resource-poor Netherlands eclip Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthsed Spain, despite the overflow of gold and silver from the Spanish colonies in the New World. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, resource-pooSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
r countries such as Switzerland and Japan surged ahead of resource-abundant economies such as Russia. In the past thirty years, the world's star perfoNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth economies such as the oil-rich countries of Mexico, Nigeria, Venezuela, have gone bankrupt.The negative association between resource abundance and growth certainly poses a conceptual puzzle. After all. natural resources raise the wealth and the purchasing power over imports, so that‘This is a subst Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthantially revised version of our earlier paper, 'Natural Resources and Economic Growth," Harvard Institute for International Development, January 1995.Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
We wish to thank Alan Taylor and participants in the HIID research retreat for helpful comments, Robert Barro, Jong-Wha Lee, Brad DeLong. Lawrence SuNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growtherzner and Jennifer Harris for helping with the data.resource abundance might be expected to raise an economy’s investment and growth rates as well. Many oil-rich countries have aimed to use their vast oil revenues to finance diversified investments and a *blg push’ in industrial development. Venezu Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthelans called this “sowing the seeds of Oil revenues.” Moreover, as pointed out recently by Williamson and DeLong (1994), when a natural resource has hSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
igh transport costs, then its physical availability within the economy may be essential for the introduction of a new industry or a new technology. AsNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth century. In that case, resource-rich economies such as Britain, Germany, and the U.S., experienced particularly rapid industrial development at the end of the last century. With falling transport costs, however, the physical availability of resources within the national economy Is rarely as decisiv Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthe today as it was a century ago. Thus. Japan and Korea have succeeded in become world-class steel producers despite their virtual complete dependenceSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
on imports of iron ore. Even if natural resources are no longer a decisive advantage to economic growth, it is surely surprising that they might pose NBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth, though to the best of our knowledge, none has confirmed the adverse effects of resource abundance on growth on the basis of a worldwide, comparative study of growth, as we do in this paper. Important earlier findings of the failures of resource-led development include several outstanding works by Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-GrowthAlan Gelb, culminating in Gelb (1988), and several key studies by Auty, most comprehensively in Auty (1990). These studies suggest many of the economiSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
c and political factors that may have played a role in the disappointing performance of resource-abundant economies, and so provide a basis for some oNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthand spirit to this paper, and also points to the adverse role of natural resource endowments (measured mainly by land and population density) on growth and manufacturing exports.There are indeed a large number of hypotheses that can be raised (in addition to the hypothesis.3later discarded, that the Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth negative relationship in Figure 1 is purely spurious). One early explanation of the phenomenon is social: that easy riches lead to sloth. The sixteenSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
th century French political philosopher Jean Bodin (1576, reprinted 1S62) asserted as much when he claimed that:men of a fat and fertile soil, are mosNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthdustrious. (V. I. 565)?An alternative approach lies In the area of political economy. Lane and Tomell (1995) have recently argued in a formal model that resource-rich economies are subject to more extreme rent-seeking behavior than resource-poor economies, as national politics is oriented to grabbin Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growthg the rents earned by the natural resource endowments In their model, a windfall coming from a terms-of-trade improvement or a discovery of natural reSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
source deposits can lead to a ‘feeding frenzy" in which competing factions fight for the natural resource rents, and end up inefficiently exhausting tNBER WORKING PAPER SERIESNATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCEAND ECONOMIC GROWTHJeffrey D. Sachs Andrew M. WarnerWorking Paper 5398NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC R Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growths is strictly economic, drawing upon the ideas widespread in the development literature in the 1940s and 50s. and in the Dutch Disease models more recently. One important tradition in the development literature, associated with Raul Prebish and Hans Singer, argued that resource-based growth would be Sachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth ineffective because the world prices of primary exports relative to manufactures show a deep tendency towards secular decline. Closely related viewsSachs-and-Warner-1995_Natural-Resource-Abundance-and-Economic-Growth
held that world demand for manufacturers would grow faster than demand for primary products or that the rich countries would be more protectionist agaGọi ngay
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