The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
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The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionshback. University of Arizona and NBER Shawn E. Kantor, University of Calfomia, Merced and NBER38930We have re-estimated all of the equations and added some new variables since this draft was written. This draft will give you a strong sense of what we are doing. I will present the new results in the The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression seminar.Please Do Not Quote Without One of the Authors’ Permission.For Presentation at the Program Meeting of the Development of the American EconomyThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
Group at the National Bureau of Economic Research, March 4, 2006.Draft: February 28,2006Boustan-Fishback-Kantor 2The Effect of Internal Migration on The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionmmigrant arrivals on local labor markets in the United States. Yet immigration from abroad comprises a small share of total flows into local labor markets. Since 1940, new foreign entry' has accounted for less than 11 percent of cross-county moves and less than 20 percent of moves across state lines The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression.To capture this central feature of competition in local labor markets, we examine the impact of internal migration on annual earnings and employmentThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
in major U.S. cities in the late 1930s.: We also explore the effect of these labor supply shocks on the out-migration of existing workers and the in-mThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionund in previous studies (for a survey of this literature, see Friedberg and Hunt, 1995).The 1930s are a unique laboratory for exploring the causal impact of immigration on the labor market. Due both to the imposition of immigration quotas in 1924 and the relative severity of the Great Depression, im The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionmigration to the US was at its nadir in the 1930s.2 Internal migration therefore represented the vast majority of population flows to and from local lThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
abor markets.3 Because internal migrants originate their moves from within the US, we have access to a wealth of information about the economic enviroThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressioneas to develop an instrument for in-migration to our sample of large US cities.4 With this approach, we can address the endogenous location choices of migrants, who tend to be2Draft: February 28,2006Boustan-Fishback-Kantor 3attracted 10 cities with high wages or strong wage growth, thus obscuring an The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressiony negative relationship between in-migration and wages.Furthermore, internal migration in the 1930s was far less geographically concentrated than inteThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
rnational migration is today. In 2000,38.4 percent of immigrant households resided in four metropolitan areas (New York, T.os Angeles, Chicago, and SaThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression only 4.4 pert ent of internal migrants. The clustering of immigrants in just a lew gateway cities has complicated the interpretation of modern results, rendering the effect of immigrant indistinguishable from general economic trends on the coasts.3Draft: February 28,2006Boustan-Fishback-Kantor 4I. The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great DepressionSearching for the Economic Effects of Immigration in the DataAs with international arrivals today, the internal migration of the 1930s prompted complaThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
ints in migrant-receiving areas. An extreme example was California, where the influx of the Dust Bowl “Okies” led to outcries and occasional violence The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression immigrants. The results of this literature offer some insights into the anticipated effects of inflows of migrants from the rest of the country.The economic underpinnings of anti-migrant sentiment is often the fear that new arrivals drive wages down (and the local cost of housing and living up), lo The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionwering the standard of living for the existing population. A standard model of the labor market certainly supports this claim. In this framework, inteThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
rnal migration flows into a city represent an outward shift in the supply function of labor. This would lead to an unambiguous decrease in the wages, The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionse in labor supply. Because American cities are tied to integrated national market for products, it is likely that the supply effect dominates the increase in derived labor demand.The empirical reality of this proposition has been tested for international immigrants in a variety of settings (Altonji The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression and Card, 1991; Borjas, 1987; Carter and Sutch, 1999; Goldin. 1994; Hatton and Williamson 1995). The typical analysis examines the impact of the flowThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
of migrants from abroad to a labor market on local wage levels or wage growth.Overall, it appears that the effect of immigration on wages has changedThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionled to a large reduction in wages (5 to 7 percent). Few4Draft: February 28,2006Boustan-Fishback-Kantor 5studies using modern data - with the exception of Altonji and Card (1991) - have detected a wage response of this magnitude.The weak observed relationship between immigration and wages in the port The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression-of-entry labor market has prompted an on-going discussion about other margins of local adjustment. Borjas, Freeman and Katz (1997) point out that, ifThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
immigrants displace members of the existing workforce, these out-migrants will spreads the economic costs of immigration to other local markets. ThusThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression generally, with the free flow of factors between cities, the initial wage and/or employment response to a labor supply shock might be tempered in the long-run by the out-migration of workers or the in-migration of firms (Blanchard and Katz, 1992).The empirical evidence on these long-run responses t The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressiono immigration is mixed. Filer (1992) found that immigrants crowded out existing workers from pon-of-entry cities one-for-one between 1975-80. However,The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
more recent studies have not detected an appreciable out-migration response to international arrivals (see Card, 2001; Wright, Ellis and Reibel, 1997The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. Fis The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression000 low-skilled Cubans to the local labor force, occurred through the endogenous investment decisions of local firms - in particular, the slower adoption of labor-saving computer technology (see also: Card, 1990).To provide a comprehensive picture of local adjustments to internal migration, we exami The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depressionne not only changes in annual earnings and employment rates, but also the out-migration of workers already in the city. In future drafts, we plan to eThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets American Cities During the Great Depression
xamine the impact of migration flows on the growth of local industry.5Draft: February 28, 2006Boustan-Fishback-Kantor 5II. Migration and Labor MarketsThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. FisThe Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities During the Great DepressionLeah Platt Boustan, Harvard UniversityPrice V. FisGọi ngay
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